350 REPORT OF THE FORESTRY COMMITTEE 



On the other hand, there exist concerning the national forests the following con- 

 ditions which govern the degree to which, such utilization can or should be 

 secured : 



1. Lack of present market for most of the mature timber. 



2. Inaccessibility of much of it. 



3. Effect of low lumber values in preventing extra logging expense re- 

 quired to insure reforestation or to utilize low grade material. 



4. Effect of further reduction of values, due to forcing the market by too 

 extensive cutting, in creating more wasteful utilization of private timber. 



5. Lack of definite knowledge as to growth of national forest timber to meet 

 most acute future shortage ; in other words, as to whether such shortage can best 

 be met by holding old timber or growing new. 



6. Lack of definite knowledge as to private and State production or holding 

 as they relate to the same problem of meeting future shortage. 



The first four of these conditions have been discussed already. The third 

 and fourth certainly have a bearing on production. To the extent that selling on a 

 low market results in present waste of material that would otherwise be used 

 later, it is robbing Peter to pay Paul from a conservation standpoint. They are, 

 however, far more easily gauged from time to time than the fifth and sixth con- 

 ditions, which are even more important because evil consequences can hardly be 

 remedied. 



At some time in the future our virgin timber will be exhausted. Without a 

 new crop, lumber will be unavailable. Considerably before this time, the virgin 

 timber in sufficiently good condition to hold will attain a speculative value de- 

 termined wholly by the quantity and quality of the new crop coming on to com- 

 pete with it. If sufficient old timber is held, and if the new crop is also sufficient, 

 timber will gradually increase in value until it reaches the cost of production, but 

 it will go no higher. If there is a failure in either direction, there will be a 

 period of excessive value until the situation is relieved by the growing of timber 

 that such period will stimulate. 



Such a situation will be affected by what happens on private land and on 

 national forests almost equally, for it is the total supply that will govern, except 

 insofar as a failure of Government supply at the critical period would permit the 

 speculative monopoly of any existing private supply that would not endanger the 

 consumer were the conditions reversed. And the majority of the supply of 

 mature timber is now in private, not Government, hands, consequently equally 

 rapid cutting, like give-away in checkers, will leave the controlling remnant rvholly 

 private. 



It follows that the maximum cut from the national forests should be assured, 

 not during the existing period of stored and excessive virgin supply, or during 

 that permanent future which will begin when adequate forest crops have had 

 time to mature, but during the closing years of an intervening transition period. 



The exact date cannot be predicted, but since the duration of any considerable 

 stored supply is usually estimated at somewhere near fifty years and it will cer- 

 tainly take as long to bring adequate new forests to merchantable size, the critical 



