354 REPORT O]? THE FORESTRY COMMITTEE 



age or lumber profits accruing to the purchaser. The transactions are hardly 

 comparable on the same basis. And since the system is rather an innovation, 

 involving not only different basic calculations, but also the element of continued 

 Government control under possible changes of men and policies, it is natural 

 that many lumbermen prefer to deal in a manner with which they have experience. 

 Nor has the Government itself the experience, for the system is frankly one of 

 meeting future conditions as they develop. 



The result, so far at least, is not the sale of a carefully regulated amount, sys- 

 tematically distributed by regions, but a more or less accidental disposal, deter- 

 mined chiefly by the competition of private timber which is more in a comparison 

 of the local bearing of terms and method than in a comparison of prices. The 

 policy can hardly be said to be based upon complete and sound premises, for 

 the accomplishment of any specific end; unless such a flexible and indeterminate 

 disposal, pending crystallization of the country's undertaking of forest economics, 

 is in itself considered ideal under present conditions. 



It is obvious that radical changes might be made, especially if supported by 

 legislation (there has been practically no change in the timber sale statutes since 

 1897). Retaining a time limit for removal to insure use instead of speculation, 

 timber might be sold outright upon careful estimate instead of upon scale as cut. 

 Price might be based upon competing stumpage values instead of upon lumber 

 prices. Instalment payments could be continued but advance in rate fixed posi- 

 tively beforehand upon a comparison with carrying costs as they compound 

 upon private timber. In all such calculations close attention would needs be given 

 relative transportation costs and accessibility, for it is these factors and the 

 changing margin due to compounding of carrying costs, rather than temporary 

 fluctuations in the lumber market, which chiefly fix stumpage values in regions of 

 large stored stumpage supply where much must inevitably go long uncut. 



In short, with the present value soundly based in each instance, the advance 

 of such stumpage is largely a matter of economic laws, and periodical increases 

 could be based thereon, or a single original price be made, so as to adjust any 

 difference of carrying and operating national forest timber with perhaps as fair 

 accuracy and satisfaction as under the present system. It has been argued with 

 some force that such a method is preferable under present conditions, while the 

 present system would be the most lo'gical later when improved transportation 

 facilities have obviated the necessity of making long-term sales at all and lumber 

 prices will actually govern for the short periods which will be involved. 



Whether or not there should by any such exchange of systems, wholly or in 

 part, today is a matter of opinion. Probably there should not without more study 

 of the new considerations that would be involved by those who would be re- 

 sponsible for execution. But it seems beyond dispute that such study, at least, 

 should be given. The one-fifth proportion of Government timber can hardly be 

 sold intelligently solely upon a study of operating and lumber market conditions, 

 without the fullest possible insight into all the factors which govern the holding 

 and disposal of the four-fifths proportion of private timber with which it must 

 compete. 



