FIFTH NATIONAL CONSERVATION CONGRESS 



369 



and the new not large enough, and lumber prices at a point which will force 

 economy in the use of wood and make private forestry profitable. 



FOR FUTURE USE. 



Just as a forecast of the part private forest lands will play in future pro- 

 duction, let us assume the improbable possibility that fifty years hence our wood 

 consumption will be as low as that of Germany today, or 18.8 cu. ft., or 225 

 board feet of saw timber per capita. Assume, also, that during the same period 

 our population has increased to 175,000,000. On this basis, with a per capita 

 consumption of 18.8 cu. ft. of solid wood, our gross consumption in board feet 

 would be about 39,000,000,000 ft., or practically what it is today. 



The national forests are estimated to have a potential output for all time of 

 6 billion feet per year, while the State forests might eventually produce a billion 

 feet annually, or a total, from public forests, of 7 billion feet. This leaves 32 

 billion feet to come from private forests if our needs, on the economical present 

 German basis, are to be supplied. German private forests yield per acre about 

 200 bd. ft. of saw timber per year, so our private forests would have to comprise 

 160 million acres under intensive management to produce the needed 32 billion 

 feet. Our present area of private or unreserved forests is about 440 million acres, 

 so on at least 36 per cent of this area private forestry needs to be practiced if we 

 are to have enough wood. In the above, cord wood, which constitutes about half 

 of the gross wood consumption in most countries, is ignored, since it is low-grade 

 material which will probably be available on farm woodlots and from tops and 

 waste for all time. 



PRIVATE FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT. 



The development of private forestry in the United States, from a historical 

 standpoint, will have to be recorded by the next generation because, up to the 

 present time, intensive private forestry on a scale which establishes its commer- 

 cial feasibility has not been undertaken. Sporadic attempts have been made all 

 over the country to practice forestry, and some are fairly good examples of 

 what should be or what should not be. 



Most of these operations, however, go only part way and are usually 

 dependent, at least in part, on some other factor than that of timber production 

 for profit. Corporations and institutions are sometimes owners of timbered land 

 which they must hold in any event, and in such cases timber production helps to 

 pay the carrying charges, or even may take care of expenses and show a net 

 profit. 



One of the earlier activities of the old Bureau of Forestry was the prepara- 

 tion of complete forest working plans in cooperation with private owners. These 

 were usually based on a very careful forest survey, from which a working plan 

 was prepared which indicated to the owner the methods of cutting which would 

 make his operation continuous. It is significant that in practically no case were 

 these plans carried out, to the extent of full application of methods which would 

 assure continuous forest crop production from the same land. 



