The British Sphere of Influence xxiii 



opium, and cotton of the South. The climate of North 

 China is generally considered one of the finest in the world, 

 and hence, if a partition is to be made, I would gladly 

 take it in exchange for the somewhat more productive but 

 undoubtedly malarious valley of the Yang-tse. To the north 

 of these, again, we have the vast territories of Manchuria 

 and Mongolia — both regions originally pastoral, now invaded 

 by the agricultural settlements of immigrants from China 

 proper. Manchuria is rich in gold, and has a hardy popu- 

 lation of some twenty millions ; this province, the cradle of 

 the reigning dynasty, has now been overrun by Russia, 

 and the latest telegrams announce the forcible seizure of 

 Newchwang, its one Treaty Port, by the Russians. 



In an article in the last September number of the 

 Contemporary Review I figured out the present inter-port 

 trade on the Yang-tse River at ;^30,ooo,ooo, and added my 

 opinion that, given a stable and progressive Government, 

 affording encouragement to capitalists, with security for their 

 investments — resulting in improved means of communication 

 and a corresponding development of its natural resources — 

 the Yang-tse valley will increase its trade by leaps and 

 bounds, and the ;^3o,ooo,ooo of to-day will be ;^3oo,ooo,ooo 

 to-morrow. I added the grounds upon which I based my 

 expectation of this rapid increase, and wound up by asking. 

 What is our Government going to do in regard to our 

 30-called sphere ? 



To this question it appears to me that capitalists in this 

 country, and British merchants in China, have a right to 

 demand a definite answer. We were told that the " open 

 door" policy would be upheld even at the cost of war. 

 These were brave words, as spoken by Sir Michael 

 Hicks-Beach in his celebrated Bristol speech, and met a 

 hearty response from Britons on the spot. They have 

 unfortunately not been upheld : if they had been there would 



