THE PRICE OF WHEAT 161 
main causes of this rise.* According to Jevons’s figures 
the rise in price was one-third. The rise in the price of 
wheat, however, was not so great, but the fluctuations 
were very much greater than fluctuations in general 
prices. Furthermore, the period of the rise in the case 
of general prices was earlier by about two years than 
that in the case of wheat, although the duration of both 
periods was about the same. 
Two reasons, then, may be assigned to the steady rise 
over these years—the diminution of supplies owing to 
frequent wars and the increased production of gold. 
During the period 1860-1877, the graph of wheat 
prices has four ‘‘crests’? and four corresponding 
‘“troughs.’’ It is significant to note that these prices 
follow the outbreak of war in all cases, while the falls 
are the natural consequences of a return to normal pro- 
duction after the cessation of hostilities. Moreover, the 
maxima prices occur at strikingly regular intervals of 
five years, commencing in 1862, and recurring in 1867, 
1872, and 1877. The probability is that this regularity 
is merely a coincidence, and due in great part to the 
occurrence of wars, as rises occur regularly after the 
four wars :— 
American Civil, (1861-5) ; 
Austro-Prussian, (1866) ; 
Franco-Prussian, (1870-1) ; 
Russo-Turkish, (1877-8). 
The fall of 1869 was due no doubt in some measure 
to the opening of the Suez Canal. But the influence 
would not be great immediately, and this event must be 
regarded as one factor responsible for the fall in British 
wheat during the next two decades. As such, it will 
receive notice in the succeeding section. 
*©The Purchasing Power of Money.’’ Page 242. 
g y. g' 
