296 WHEAT PRODUCTION IN NEW ZEALAND 
quickly reacts on New Zealand prices. Dr. Mellraith, 
in his Course of Prices in New Zealand, has shown that 
there is a close connection between New Zealand prices 
and English prices, and there seems to be no reason why 
this connection should weaken. The general scarcity of 
rural produce caused by the depredations of war has 
increased the rise in general prices. We may, therefore, 
conclude that prices in New Zealand will continue to 
rise. 
Now, in the immediate future wheat prices are likely 
to remain high, not only because of the conditions stated 
above, but also because there will, in all probability, be 
a retardation in the rate of production for the world. 
Exports from the United States of America are de- 
creasing yearly, and this country will gradually lose her 
commanding position in the world’s markets. Russia is 
embroiled in a great and devastating war, from which 
she is not likely to be released for some time. Even 
after peace, that country, in common with many others, 
will produce for some time with greatly impaired factors. 
The rapidly rising standard of comfort in India will 
diminish her exports in the immediate future, even 
though her production may increase. China and Japan 
will demand an ever increasing quantity, and assist 
materially in keeping prices high. 
In Canada and Argentina progress is inevitable during 
the next few years. These countries, especially the 
former, are ready to develop at a very rapid rate if 
only the opportunity is forthcoming, and in the immedi- 
ate future prices will be high and production there will 
continue to progress. Wheat producers may therefore 
look forward to the coming ten years at least with 
comparative satisfaction to reasonably high prices. 
Ultimately, however, we shall reach another stage in 
which wheat production may prove relatively unprofit- 
able ;* for the total supplies of the world will steadily 
increase and thus tend to lower prices or, at least, to 
*See footnote on page 297. 
