THE RISE IN THE VALUE OF BABIES 9 



tend, the declining birth-rate is but the beneficent 

 working of a great natural law, universally operative 

 in all species, tending to keep population within the 

 limits of subsistence. The birth-rate diminishes, but 

 so does the death-rate. An increased or even sta- 

 tionary birth-rate with a decreasing death-rate would 

 inevitably lead to overpopulation, according to this 

 optimistic view. Formerly the birth-rate was very 

 high because the death-rate was also high — condi- 

 tions which still obtain in backward countries. To 

 the holders of this view, the decline in the birth-rate 

 is only a sign of Nature's mysterious and automatic 

 adjustment to conditions. 



This is a cheerful view to take of a grave condition, 

 and one that is, moreover, seductively plausible. 

 The chief objection to it is the tremendous assumption 

 involved, that the death-rate can be continually re- 

 duced as fast as the birth-rate declines. While it is 

 true, perhaps, that during the last fifty years the death- 

 rate has steadily declined, so that in spite of the de- 

 clining birth-rate the excess of births over deaths 

 remains practically unaltered, few physicians, I 

 imagine, believe that the same rate of decrease in the 

 death-rate can be maintained for any considerable 

 period. In this connection it is interesting to note 

 that the death-rate in 1900 among the whites of native 

 parentage in Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, 

 Rhode Island, and Vermont exceeded the birth-rate 



