STUMPAGE PRICES OF THE FUTURE. 



PREMISES: Virgin forest is unproductive, because, annu- 

 ally, just as much timber is lost, through death and decomposition 

 of trees, as there is produced under the influence of sun, rain and 

 wind. 



Cut over forest is, as a general rule, almost unproductive, 

 owing to fires following the removal of the virgin growth. 



Hence it is safe to say, that the annual production of timber in 

 the 700 million acres of American woodlands is not over one-fifth of 

 what it might be, (namely, 200 feet board measure per acre) and is 

 not likely to exceed 40 feet board measure per annum per acre, or 

 28 billion feet board measure on the whole. 



The total growing stock of timber in the United States is esti- 

 mated to be 900 billion, and the annual consumption is estimated to 

 be 39 billion feet board measure, (exclusive of firewood). 



It is expected that, after the exhaustion of the American virgin 

 surplus of timber, prices of stumpage will be at a level with those 

 prevailing in No-Surplus countries, where, f. i., prime white oak 

 stumpage is worth $75 instead of $3 here, and prime pine stumpage 

 is worth $15 instead of $1.50 here, per thousand feet board meas- 

 ure. 



QUESTION : At what annual rate can we expect the stump- 

 age prices of oak and pine to rise, whilst our surplus is being grad- 

 ually exhausted f 



POINTS : 



1. The annual consumption of timber exceeds the annual pro- 

 duction by at least 11 billion feet. 



2. Hence our surplus stock of 900 billion will be consumed in 



^^ equal to 82 years. 



3. After 82 years, stumpage of oak will be worth about 25 

 times, and stumpage of pine will be worth about 10 times of what 

 it is worth now. 



EQUATION : Oak : 3.00 x i.o X^^ = 75.00 

 Pine : 1.50 x i.o X*^ = 15.00 



RESULT: The' price of oak stumpage can be expected to 

 rise at a rate of about 4 per cent, per annum ; the price of pine 

 stumpage at a rate of about 3 per cent, per annum. 



