44 ADAPTATION AND PROGRESS 



tures this method was taught by Courning in the University of 

 Helmstadt in 1660, and that a course in statistics was offered at 

 Jena in the early part of the eighteenth century. 1 Although as a 

 science it is of recent date, enumerations of population and cal- 

 culations concerning other social phenomena antedate the birth of 

 Christ more than 2000 years. 2 The word law was first used in 

 statistics by Sussmilch in 1775 to express regularity in the recur- 

 rence of social phenomena; 3 but some statisticians have confused 

 this with natural law. M. Block distinguishes the two as follows : 

 " One indicates certainty, the other, probability. ... In 

 natural laws we are able to follow the relation of cause and 

 effect. We see (as far as our knowledge or experience permits) 

 all the factors in action, we know in advance that the cause will 

 produce the effect. ... In statistics the relations of cause and 

 effect are less visible, often we can determine only correlations 

 (coincidences) from the post hoc rather than from the propter hoc, 

 for now the cause remains unknown." 



Quetelet is generally recognized as the first name in the his- 

 tory and development of modern statistical science. 4 His con- 

 tribution is stated by Hankins to be four-fold: (1) perfection of 

 plans for census taking; (2) criticism of sources; (3) arrangement 

 of materials; and (4) progress toward uniformity and compar- 

 ability of data. 5 He was the leading spirit in the formation of the 

 Bureau of Statistics in Belgium and in the organization of the 

 Royal Statistical Society of London. Through his influence 

 various nations were led to co-operate in using a standard 

 system of enumeration. 



Quetelet was a contemporary of A. Comte and seems to have 

 influenced him to some extent though Comte finally repudiated 

 the statistical method. His influence on Buckle, however, was 

 profound and the statistical method, made popular among 

 scientists by his writings, has been found of great value by 

 modern sociologists. 



Guided by the scientific thought of his day as represented by 

 Lyell, Agassiz, Gray and Hooker, Quetelet considered each species 



1 Op. tit., p. 5. a Ibid., p. 115. « Ibid., p. 41. 



2 Ibid., p. 1. * Hankins, p. 36. 



