correlating the experimental work on chestnut propagation and 
breeding will probably be considered at the October 1951 Interna- 
tional Chestnut Meeting. 
K. PROBABLE FUTURE SPREAD OF THE BLIGHT 
46. One factor influencing the thinking of the governmental 
authorities responsible for the protection of chestnut and oak 
growth is how soon the disease is going to reach their trees by 
natural spread. There are many elements of uncertainty in attempt- 
ing to make such a forecast. From the spread that has taken place 
already, it is to be expected that blight will continue to spread 
fairly rapidly over contiguous chestnut growth in Italy and Switzer- 
land. How fast it will spread around the southern edge of the Alps 
into the southeastern corner of France is somewhat questionnable, 
because, while chestnut is not very prevalent in some of these 
areas, there are extensive stands of some of the susceptible oaks 
running upover the rough mountainous areas at the lowerelevations. 
It is predicted that the spread of the blight through oak stands 
without chestnut will be at a very much slower rate than through 
the European chestnut stands. In the United States blight has made 
very slow progress in spreading through chestnut oak stands away 
from the original native chestnut stands. The affected oaks in 
Europe seem to produce more spores than the affected oak in the 
United States, but further studies on the disease on the different 
oaks in Italy are needed. 
47. From experience in the United States, it is to be expected 
that if the first spot infections of the blight are not already present 
in France, Austria, and Yugoslavia and the Lake Geneva region in 
Switzerland, they will soon be showing up. The blight may already 
have been spread to the islands of Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica by 
migrating birds or by transportation of the disease in other ways. 
But it may be some years before the first infections appear there. 
48. It is hoped that the Spanish authorities will continue their 
efforts for complete eradication of the chestnut blight near Bilbao 
and that also they will do inspection work in the European chestnut 
growth for many miles around these spot infections. Thorough and 
continuing work over a number of years will probably be necessary 
to eradicate these infections. If the chestnut blight should escape 
from these Asiatic chestnuts into the stands of native chestnut 
and oaks, the time of death of the chestnut stands and heavy 
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