40 ENGLISH ESTATE FORESTRY 



But in the case of the poorer classes of agricultural 

 land, such as, for instance, those which bring in less than 

 1 Os. per acre, the immediate return is not such an important 

 matter in the owner's eyes, although it is still one which 

 requires considerable reflection before being relinquished for 

 a deferred return. The first thing the owner of such land 

 would take into account would be the probable increase in 

 its value which a change of utilisation would bring about. 

 To give up a present annual return of 10s., 7s. 6d., or 5s. per 

 acre, as the case may be, for a deferred rent of the same 

 amount, would be no advantage to himself nor to the estate. 

 The increase in value must be sufficient to compensate for 

 the loss of rent during the non-productive period, and the 

 increase must also be sufficient to justify the risk which 

 would attend the operation. 



In considering the suitability of such land for timber 

 growing, therefore, the whole question turns on the yield 

 that may be expected from the timber crop under the 

 prevailing conditions of soil, climate, elevation, aspect, 

 market prices, and so on, which, in the case of ground which 

 has never before carried a crop of timber, are all unknown 

 quantities, and can only be approximately gauged by 

 experience and analogy. Experience teaches that if a 

 certain soil and situation in a given climate and at a given 

 elevation have produced a certain crop of timber, a similar 

 soil under similar conditions will produce a similar crop 

 elsewhere. The weak point in the inference lies in the fact 

 that the analogy is rarely, if ever, complete. The various 

 factors which combine to produce a given yield of timber 

 are rarely, if ever, found in the same combination twice over, 

 and it is only approximately that an estimate of the yield or 

 value of a particular crop can be made. But, for all that, we 

 are fairly safe in predicting that land on either side of an 

 existing plantation will produce a similar crop to that found 

 in the latter, provided soil and all other factors are 

 apparently the same. Basing our calculation on data of 

 this kind, it is not difficult to anticipate the approximate 

 result of planting different classes of soils throughout the 

 whole of England; and although accident may affect the 

 accuracy of the prediction in one case, an undiscovered 



