The Recent Floods 



289 



forecast was therefore made for a 40- 

 foot stage within a few days. The crest 

 stage of 40. 1 feet was reached on the 

 morning of March 20, 7.1 feet above 

 the danger line and three feet above the 

 high- water mark of 1897. At New Or- 

 leans the rise continued for nearly three 

 weeks longer, and the crest stage of 

 204 feet was reached on April 6, 1.5 

 feet above the high-water mark of 1897. 

 There were occasional surgings of the 

 water to 20.7 feet, and had not the 

 levees broken in the St Francis system 

 and later at Hymelia, La., the forecast 

 of a 2 1 -foot stage made over four weeks 

 before would have been fully verified. 

 As it was, the error was on the right 

 side, it being an important axiom of 

 river forecasting to always slightly over- 

 estimate, if possible, the probable height 

 of a flood crest. 



The stages forecasted and those act- 

 ually reached from Cairo to New Or- 

 leans were as follows. The forecast at 

 Cairo was made four days in advance, 

 and that at New Orleans 28 days in ad- 

 vance of the crest : 



Stations. 



Forecast 

 stage. 



Actual 

 stage. 



Cairo 



Feet. 

 5°-5 to 5 1 

 40 

 51.0 



53.o 

 49.0 

 52 

 21 



Feet. 

 50.6 

 40.1 

 51.0 

 53-o 

 49-' 

 51.8 

 20. 4 to 20.7 



Memphis 



Helena 



Arkansas City 



Greenville 



Vicksburjc 



New Orleans 



On the Ouachita River, 37 and 45 

 feet were forecasted and 36.2 and 44.5 

 feet reached at Alexandria and Monroe, 

 La. , respectively. 



The floods of the last few days of 

 May and the early days of June in the 

 lower Missouri and the upper Missis- 

 sippi were the greatest of any of which 

 we have authentic record, except that 

 of 1844. The stories of the ruin and 

 desolation in the valley of the Kaw and 

 at Kansas City are familiar to all. Dur- 



ing the latter half of May persistent low 

 barometric pressure over the eastern 

 slope of the Rocky Mountains caused 

 daily rainfalls of almost torrential char- 

 acter over Kansas, the excess above the 

 normal amount for the season averag- 

 ing about seven inches. The same con- 

 ditions prevailed to a lesser extent to 

 the eastward into northwestern Mis- 

 souri and Iowa, and all streams soon 

 became raging torrents. At Kansas 

 City the maximum stage was 35 feet, 2 

 feet below the high-water mark of 1844. 

 The records for points within the State 

 of Kansas have not yet been verified, 

 but there are sufficient data at hand to 

 warrant the statement that they were 

 higher than ever before recorded. 



The first warnings of this flood were 

 issued at Kansas City on May 26, and 

 thereafter daily until the waters sub- 

 sided. It was in connection with this 

 flood that there occurred the single un- 

 fortunate feature of the flood work of 

 the year. Owing to the want of suffi- 

 cient funds for the purpose, no flood 

 service has been maintained on the 

 Kansas River, although the Missouri 

 River is well supplied. For this reason 

 it was not possible to forecast exact 

 stages after May 29. On May 30 tele- 

 graph and telephone service were ver} 7 

 uncertain, and on the 31st Kansas City 

 was completely cut off from the west. 

 On June 1 came the flood crest of 35 

 feet. The forecasts were from the ne- 

 cessities of the case very general in 

 character, and stated only that a " seri- 

 ous flood" was imminent, and would 

 continue as long as the rains were fall- 

 ing. East of Kansas City conditions 

 were more favorable, and the forecasts 

 were well verified, both as to time and 

 stage. Warnings were first issued at 

 Des Moines on the 25th of May, at 

 Keokuk on the 28th, and at St Louis on 

 the 30th. At this latter place warnings 

 were issued on June 5 to prepare for a 

 stage of 38 feet in about four days. On 

 the fifth day that stage was exactly 



