122 The National Geographic Magazine 



were from the United States. General 

 statements of this nature are easily made 

 and easily believed, and without any 

 careful examination into the details it 

 has been the usual thing to assume that 

 this development of Russia in Manchu- 

 ria was certain to bring an increased 

 market for the products of the United 

 States. The subject has not yet been 

 examined in all its phases as it should 

 be, and as far as I know there is no one 

 prepared by study and knowledge of all 

 the details of the question to give a wise 

 decision as to what the effect will be 

 upon American trade from merely an 

 economic point of view. 



At the present time the principal im- 

 ports from the United States into Man- 

 churia stand in the following order : 

 Cotton goods, kerosene, flour, lumber, 

 canned and dried fruits and vegetables, 

 beer, canned milk and butter, cigarettes, 

 and sundries. 



The exports from Manchuria to the 

 United States are so small as to be a 

 matter of no consequence. 



Cotton Goods. — In cotton goods Russia 

 is anxious for the trade, and is making 

 every effort to secure the business and 

 is becoming a serious competitor. Her 

 advantages in this line are political, bank 

 advances, and transportation. In a free 

 contest, on purely economic lines, I think 

 the United States can hold it. Russia 

 favors the export of cotton goods into 

 Persia by a heavy bounty, and just what 

 she will do in order to secure this trade 

 in Manchuria is not yet determined. At 

 present she is providing a heavily-sub- 

 sidized steamship line to bring these 

 goods to Dalny and Vladivostock, where 

 they enter free of duty, and no doubt 

 they receive preferential railroad rates 

 from these into the interior, or will if 

 necessary. 



These things, together with the finan- 

 cial help of the Russo-Chinese Bank, 

 have not yet been sufficient to do more 

 than start the trade well, and they may 

 have to resort to a bounty in addition, 



unless they can shut out foreign goods 

 by a tariff. 



The production of cotton goods in 

 Russia is growing very fast, and, as they 

 have their designs on securing the trade 

 of Manchuria in this line, it is only rea- 

 sonable to suppose that they will event- 

 ually secure the trade they are prepared 

 to handle in any country over which 

 they have control. 



The following is from the pen of a 

 well-known American writer, who has 

 investigated the subject carefully and is 

 thoroughly acquainted with the con- 

 ditions of production and marketing of 

 Russian cotton goods : 



' ' There is considerable excitement 

 just now about the Russian possession of 

 Manchuria. * * * If Russia adopts 

 the same methods as to other parts of 

 Asia that she is now using in Persia she 

 will drive all other countries out of the 

 market. She has now the monopoly of 

 the cotton business of Persia, and she 

 has gotten it by giving a bounty to her 

 manufacturers. On every pound of 

 Russian cotton goods sent to Persia the 

 Moscow exporter gets an allowance of 

 3 cents from the government. One cent 

 covers the freight and he has 2 cents a 

 pound profit, besides the usual profit on 

 the goods. The English or German 

 manufacturer has to pay full freight, 

 with no rebate, and he can not compete. 

 This same system will be adopted in 

 China. * * * After the trade has 

 been captured the rebate may be discon- 

 tinued and the price will rise." 



Kerosene. — This is the next in impor- 

 tance of American imports into Manchu- 

 ria. Russian oil is already making very 

 good headway in a free and equal com- 

 petition with American oil. By forcing 

 its use in all the cities of Manchuria, by 

 special aid from the Russo-Chinese banks 

 that are now established in all the prin- 

 cipal cities, by preferential rates on the 

 railway, by providing tank cars and tank 

 stations along the railway line and re- 

 fusing these advantages to American 



