336 THE COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF JAPAN 



form a large proportion of her area. It must be remembered 

 that Japan, with a small cultivable area, has a population of 

 about 45,000,000, and must therefore devote most of her arable 

 land to the production of foodstuffs, while her natural products 

 of silk and tea are so much in demand the world over that they 

 are not likely to be displaced for cotton, which can be so readily 

 brought from other and comparatively adjacent countries. Cotton 

 manufacturing in Japan has, however, grown very rapidly, the 

 total number of spindles in 1899 being 4,358,702, against 5,468 

 in 1863 and 43,700 in 1883. It is thus apparent that Japan will 

 continue to purchase from other parts of the world a large pro- 

 portion of the raw cotton which her rapidly growing cotton mills 

 will consume, and as the cotton from the United States has 

 already made rapid headway against that from the nearer coun- 

 tries of China and India, it is reasonable to assume that the 

 market for American cotton will continue to grow, especially if 

 an isthmian canal gives opportunit} 7 for direct water shipments 

 from the cotton-growing section of the United States. 



In iron and steel there seems no reason to doubt that the de- 

 mand upon the United States will continue. The importations 

 of manufactures of iron and steel into Japan have grown very 

 rapidly. It is apparent that the demand for manufactures of 

 this class will continue to increase with perhaps greater rapidity. 

 The various manufacturing and mechanical industries are being 

 encouraged by the government and by Japanese capitalists, as 

 are also the construction of railroads, the building of ships, and 

 other enterprises of this kind, which will require great quanti- 

 ties of iron and steel and their manufactures. While consider- 

 able quantities of iron ore are known to exist in various parts of 

 Japan, it is not believed that the_y will prove sufficient to seri- 

 ously interfere with or take the place of the supplies now being 

 furnished from other countries, especially since there are few 

 places where iron and coal are found in conjunction. In addi- 

 tion to this, it may be said that while the coal supply is now 

 such as to have become quite an article of export, rivaling that 

 of Australia and other localities in that part of the world, I do 

 not believe that it will be sufficient to meet the great demand 

 upon it for all classes of manufactures for any considerable term- 

 Besides, the large capital required for the construction of estab- 

 lishments for the manufacture of iron and steel, coupled with 

 the extreme cheapness of production in the United States 

 through proximity of coal and iron mines, makes it improbable 



