406 CALCULATIONS OF POPULATION IN JUNE, 1900 



within the watershed, and this in turn is largely dependent upon 

 the amount of snowfall during the previous winter and the man- 

 ner of its disappearance. 



The present season has been one of abundant rainfall on both 

 sides of the international boundary, north of a line drawn through 

 Alpena and Parry sound. South of that line the rainfall has been 

 deficient. The water of Lake Superior has been higher than 

 usual, and there has been an increase in water levels of Lakes 

 Michigan and Huron also, although rainfall over a large portion 

 of the watersheds of the lakes last named has been deficient. 



This is an important fact, since it suggests at once the proba- 

 bility that the stage of water in Lakes Michigan and Huron is 

 controlled in great measure by precipitation in the Superior 

 basin. The number of rainfall stations reporting to the Weather 

 Bureau from the lake region is about 300. It should be possi- 

 ble in the course of a few years to define in at least approximate 

 terms the relations which subsist between atmospheric precipi- 

 tation and fluctuations in the level of the lakes. 



CALCULATIONS OF POPULATION IN JUNE, 1900* 



By Henry Farquhar, 

 Statistical Expert, Division of Statistics, U. S. Department of Agriculture 



The problem to be discussed in this paper may be stated as 

 follows : Given the population of the United States (not includ- 

 ing recent territorial extensions) for the first of June in each 

 tenth year; given also the total immigration to the country for 

 the several decades beginning with 1821 and ending with 1900 ; to 

 conclude from those data the population probably to be returned 

 for the same territory for the first of June next year. In using 

 the decennial population figures, those for 1870, confessed by 

 General Walker himself to be several hundred thousand short 

 of the truth, are omitted. The immigration for the fiscal year 

 just begun has necessarily to be estimated in calculating the 

 increase from 1890 to 1900 ; otherwise the official returns con- 

 stitute the data of the problem. 



Immigration. — The annual figures are given by fiscal years 

 ending with September from 1820 to 1849, with the exception of 



* Read before Section I of The American Association for the Advancement of Science, 

 Columbus, August 22, 1809. 



