198 THE INDUCTIONS OF BIOLOGY. 



occupations, and the new yards would be devoted to other 

 uses. But if the increased need for ships lasted long 

 enough, and became great enough, to cause a flow of capital 

 and labour from other industries into the iron-manufacture, a 

 falling off in the demand for ships, would much less rapidly 

 entail a dwindling of the ship-building industry. For iron 

 being now produced in greater quantity, a diminished con- 

 sumption of it for ships, would cause a fall in its price, and 

 a consequent fall in the cost of ships: thus enabling the 

 ship-builders to meet the competition which we may sup- 

 pose led to a decrease in the orders they received. And since, 

 when new blast-furnaces and rolling-mills, &c, had been built 

 with capital drawn from other industries, its transference 

 back into other industries, would involve great loss ; the 

 owners, rather than transfer it, would accept unusually low in- 

 terest ; and an excess of iron would continue to be produced ; 

 resulting in an undue cheapness of ships, and a maintenance 

 of the ship-building industry at a size beyond the need. 

 Eventually, however, if the number of ships required still 

 diminished, the production of iron in excess would become 

 very unremunerative : some of the blast-furnaces would be 

 blown out ; and as much of the capital and labour as remained 

 available, would be re-distributed among other occupations. 

 Without repeating the steps of the argument, it will be clear 

 that were the enlargement of the ship-building industry 

 great enough, and did it last long enough, to cause an in- 

 crease in the number of coal-mines ; the ship-building in- 

 dustry would be still better able to maintain itself under 

 adverse circumstances ; but that it would, though at a more 

 distant period, end by sinking down to the needful dimensions. 

 Thus our conclusions are : — First, that if the extra activity 

 and growth of a particular industry, has lasted long enough 

 only to remodel the proximately- affected industries ; it will 

 dwindle away again after a moderate period, if the need for 

 it disappears. Second, that an enormous period must be re- 

 quired before the re-actions produced by an enlarged industry j 



