496 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY 



the advance of any given tract, taken at random, in ten years from 1898 

 was most likely to be between twofold and fivefold." In the Pacific 

 northwest, where the development in lumbering has been comparatively 

 recent, " a tract taken at random is likely to have increased in any 

 ratio from threefold to tenfold in the ten years ending in 1907 or 

 1908." 6 Here the proportion of extraordinary advances " is probably 

 greater than in the south." 



The rise in timber lands would therefore seem to have more than 

 justified the increases in the wholesale price of lumber. Even in the 

 older section, where the timber has been largely cut away, the increases 

 have been rapid. In the newer section, which have recently developed 

 as lumbering regions, the rate of increase in timber land values has 

 been little short of stupendous. 



No student can turn away from these records of the increase of 

 timber land values since 1890 without a feeling of profound wonder. 

 Twofold, fivefold, tenfold increases in two decades are immense, even in 

 a developing country. That the price of timber products should have 

 advanced rapidly in view of this tremendous increase in the value of 

 timber land goes without saying. 



Timber is in a peculiar position, economically. A hundred years 

 ago it was an obstacle to American progress; to-day it is one of its 

 rapidly vanishing resources. The approaching exhaustion of the timber 

 supply undoubtedly plays a large part in causing the upward trend of 

 prices. Not until the growing of timber is placed on a business basis 

 and the demands of timber users are made commensurate with that 

 business in this country, can a normal adjustment of prices be expected. 



Farm land values present no such unusual difficulties as these 

 encountered in the analysis of timber land values. Farming is an 

 established business. The best farm land of the United States is 

 largely under cultivation. If properly pursued, farming does not 

 exhaust the resources of the land — rather it increases them. Hence, 

 the increases in farm land values present an illustration of very normal 

 land value increase. 



The material dealing with the increase in farm values is by far the 

 most accessible of all the data on land values in the United States, since 

 the Bureau of the Census makes elaborate returns on the subject. 

 Although these returns are open to some very obvious and often- 

 repeated criticisms, they probably represent, on the whole, a fairly accu- 

 rate statement of the increase in the value of farm lands in the districts 

 which they cover. 



The censuses of 1900 and 1910 give a separate statement of the 

 value of land and buildings. Prior to that time land and buildings 

 were grouped together. The last two censuses therefore furnish as 



'Ilia., p. 215. 



