THE DIMINISHING BIRTH RATE 75 



omist seems more in keeping with the general character of human 

 nature. For man is a being with the faculty of rational prevision. Xo 

 trait of civilized man is more distinctive, or more necessary to every 

 kind of progress. Xor is there any department of life in which the 

 exercise of foresight is more indispensable to well-being than the realm 

 of the birth rate. Hitherto, in the formulation of public policy the 

 attitude of moralists, publicists and statesmen has assumed the posi- 

 tion of the economist to be correct. Clearly, he who would prove that 

 the birth rate is in the main determined in a manner different from 

 the results of conduct in general assumes a heavy burden. Professor 

 Marshall says : 



In the animal and vegetable world the growth of numbers is governed by 

 the tendency of individuals to propagate their species on the one hand, and on 

 the other hand by the struggle for life which thins out the young before they 

 arrive at maturity. In the human race alone the conflict of these two opposing 

 forces is complicated by other influences. On the one hand regard for the future 

 induces many individuals to control their natural impulses; sometimes with the 

 purpose of worthily discharging their duties as parents; sometimes, as for 

 instance at Rome under the empire, for mean motives. And, on the other hand, 

 society exercises pressure on the individual by religious, moral and legal sanc- 

 tions, sometimes with the object of quickening, and sometimes with that of 

 retarding, the growth of population. 8 



Ill 



The economist, however, does not rest his case upon merely dis- 

 crediting that advanced by others. He is able to adduce evidence of 

 two things, namely, a growing desire to limit the size of the family, 

 and a willingness to take the steps necessary to this end, which go far 

 toward establishing his claim that the will is the influential factor in 

 determining the birth rate. There can be no doubt that a large family 

 in the old sense of the word is no longer desired. The increased outlay 

 necessary to raise a child to the age of self-support, an increase out of 

 all proportion to the increase of incomes, in itself constitutes a good 

 and all-sufficient reason. A much more prolonged and expensive term 

 of training and of apprenticeship has become necessary to enter suc- 

 cessfully upon many careers. The expense of producing self-supporting 

 men limits their supply as truly as the expense of producing commodi- 

 ties. Again, the economic reasons which once rendered marriage com- 

 pulsory for women have lost much of their force. The will of woman 

 has consequently become more influential in determining not only the 

 formation but the admission of new members to the family. The 

 desire for ease and the fear of the birth pangs, the craving for an inde- 

 pendent life and the desire to realize other aims inconsistent with mar- 

 riage and offspring have a greater opportunity than formerly to influ- 

 ence the birth rate. Moreover, the keener competition to which the 



'Marshall, op. tit., p. 173. 



