t r r\ « 



THE 



POPULAR SCIENCE 



MONTHLY. 



SEPTEMBER, 1909 



CAPACITY OF THE UNITED STATES FOE POPULATION" 



Bx Peofessob ALBERT PERRY BRIGHAM 



COLGATE UNIVERSITY 



IF any reader of these pages thinks, with a recent writer, that " pop- 

 ulation is a vast and wandering theme," we shall have no quarrel 

 with him. No doubt the problem has a keener interest in such a 

 country as Great Britain or France, where population approaches ca- 

 pacity or is perhaps beyond the permanent limit of resources. But we 

 are maturing, the frontier stage is past, our land is filling and fertile 

 quarter sections are no more free. We have thus our own social prob- 

 lems, sharpening their quest for solution, and, moreover, being Amer- 

 icans, we now and then become enthusiastic and break into prophecy. 



We may well sober our inquiry with the preliminary question — is a 

 great population desirable? Not so, surely, for us, from the military 

 point of view. We have men enough to send to the front and men 

 enough to keep in the shop and field, to meet any emergency of war 

 which lies within the horizon of reasonable conjecture. Perhaps, in 

 view of our general influence in the world, we might be glad to have 

 several hundred millions of people, but only if we are so conditioned 

 that our influence would be a boon to other lands. This indeed in itself 

 implies a limit, for we must not be too many to live with freedom and 

 with worthy standards. 



We may take ourselves out of the ranks of the enthusiast with a 

 second preliminary question — is a great population probable ? Our list 

 of prophets is distinguished. Mr. 0. P. Austin thinks there is no good 

 reason for our failing of three hundred million people in the year 2000. 

 Mr. James J. Hill expects an increase to two hundred million in less 

 than fifty years, and Mr. Andrew Carnegie a few years ago thought five 

 hundred million a proper figure. Mr. Justin Winsor allows two hun- 

 dred million for the Mississippi Valley. Mr. F. A. Ogg raises the figure 



VOL. LXXV. — 14. 



