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THE NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE 



ammunition, expressing the opinion that 

 the war would be over before the time of 

 delivery came, while in December of that 

 first year men of highest importance in 

 the Russian Empire labored under the 

 belief that Austria, exhausted by her 

 early sacrifices, was on the point of mak- 

 ing an independent peace. Roumania. in 

 September of 1916, believed that the war 

 was practically over. 



The result of this general misconcep- 

 tion in England was that the mobilization 

 of British resources did not take place 

 until the spring of 19 15 and conscription 

 until 19 1 6. In Russia the truth was 

 realized only when the army ran out of 

 supplies early in 191 5, when she paid for 

 the lack of vision of her government by 

 the sacrifice of thousands of lives in the 

 great retreat, while Roumania, as the 

 world now knows, has lost three-quar- 

 ters of her territory as a price for her 

 undue optimism as to the German ca- 

 pacity to continue the war. 



FALLACIOUS ARGUMENTS HEARD HERE 



In 19 1 7 we hear in America the same 

 fallacious arguments that one has heard 

 for three years in Europe, namely, that 

 Germany is at the end of her resources, 

 and that it is not worth while for indi- 

 viduals to enlist, as the chances are they 

 will never have the opportunity to leave 

 American shores. 



The prevalence of this opinion is in 

 reality of the greatest assistance to the 

 Germans, and by the wide-spread belief 

 in this we are actually making the dura- 

 tion of the war infinitely longer. To 

 those who believe that the German Gov- 

 ernment is about to break on account of 

 the reverse on the western front, I would 

 call attention to the extraordinary psy- 

 chology of the German people, which is 

 so different from that of all other coun- 

 tries engaged in this war that compari- 

 son is impossible. 



It is difficult for Americans to realize 

 the discipline and lack of intellectual in- 

 itiative which exists in the German army 

 and among the German people. 



Ever since he became Emperor, Wil- 

 helm has been instilling his extraordinary 

 beliefs into his army and into his people, 

 until today we have a psychology in the 

 Teuton Empire which will probably make 



it possible for the military autocracy to 

 continue the war to a far greater length 

 than would be conceivable in any other 

 country in the world. 



THE PERVERTED TEACHINGS OE THE 

 KAISER 



In the early nineties the Kaiser sounded 

 the keynote of his own character and 

 point of view in a speech he made to a 

 regiment in northern Germany, when he 

 said to them: "I would rather see my 

 forty-five million Prussians dead on the 

 field of battle than see one foot of the 

 soil taken in 1870 given back to France." 



And several years later, in addressing 

 a body of recruits in Potsdam, the Kai- 

 ser is reported to have said: "Now that 

 you have donned my uniform it must be 

 your pleasure and your duty to follow 

 my wishes, realizing that I rule Germany 

 by the direct will of God, and you must 

 willingly obey my commands, even 

 though I require you to shoot down your 

 own fathers and brothers in response to 

 my dictates." 



With such ideas as these being in- 

 stilled into the German army and Ger- 

 man people year by year, we must not 

 believe that at the first sign of reverse 

 they will forget the teachings of forty 

 years and demand consummation of im- 

 mediate peace; and we must likewise 

 realize that a revolution in German v at 

 this time has far less opportunity for 

 success, for there is every probability 

 that the German soldiers would fire upon 

 their own people with the same sub- 

 servience to their officers that they show 

 in all their military operations. 



THE WAR'S END NOT AT HAND 



While the military operations in the 

 west are of vast importance to the situ- 

 ation and must unquestionably demoral- 

 ize the Germans to a certain extent, I see 

 no reason to believe that the events of 

 this month in France have created a con- 

 dition from which we may expect any 

 immediate results looking toward peace. 



When we read that the French and 

 English have taken 33,000 prisoners and 

 330 guns in the month of April, we must, 

 of course, rejoice: but we must at the 

 same time guard against an optimism 

 which leads to the belief that our only 



