38: 



THE NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE 



taking in the support of the new provis- 

 ional government in Russia. Inasmuch 

 as we cannot at present strike the enemy 

 with any military force of our own, we 

 must strike by assisting, to the greatest 

 extent- possible, that member of the Allies 

 who is in the greatest need of assistance. 

 It must be evident now that the Ger- 

 mans have lost for the present the possi- 

 bility of achieving any objective in the 

 west which might bring them peace. It 

 is clear, then, that they must turn their 

 minds toward the adjustment of peace 

 with Russia ; for, if this end can be ob- 

 tained, between two and three million 

 available troops would be released for 

 operations in the west, and an access to 

 food supplies and raw materials in Russia 

 would largely neutralize the effectiveness 

 of the British blockade and give the Ger- 

 mans the capacity to fight indefinitely. 



DANGERS OF A TEUTON DRIVE OX 

 PETROGRAD 



While I am not a pessimist as to the 

 situation in Russia, I am certainly of the 

 opinion that it is more than a military 

 possibility for the Germans to take Petro- 

 grad between now and the first of Sep- 

 tember. 



Were they to do this, they would strike 

 a terrific moral blow at the Empire and 

 an equally heavy economic one by the 

 capture of the greatest munition and 

 manufacturing base in Russia. At the 

 same time they would isolate the Russian 

 fleet in the Baltic and threaten potentially 

 the lines of communication between Eng- 

 land and Russia, throwing a terrific bur- 

 den on the Trans-Siberian Railroad. 



There is no question but that the pres- 

 ent provisional government in Russia is 

 composed of the most far-seeing and pa- 

 triotic men of the nation. Perhaps no 

 revolution in history has produced a finer 

 group of patriots than this Russian 

 twelve ; but we in America must not ex- 

 pect the impossible, even from these dis- 

 tinguished and highly intelligent gentle- 

 men. 



In the face of military disaster, the 

 possibility of which we must recognize, 

 and the loss of the capital, whose security 

 we must not too certainly depend upon, 

 and with the ammunition and supplies 

 from the outside threatened, if not cut 



off, we must discount the possibility of 

 an extremely dangerous situation in the 

 east during the coming summer. 



We must always count on German in- 

 trigue exerting malevolent influence in 

 Russia whenever the news from the front 

 is in the least bit pessimistic. It is for 

 the reason mentioned above that I believe 

 our President has shown great wisdom 

 and foresight in giving his immediate at- 

 tention to the Russian situation in pref- 

 erence to any other of the Allies at the 

 present time. 



XO DOUBT AS TO THE WAR'S OUTCOME 



As to the ultimate outcome of the war 

 there is, of course, not the slightest doubt 

 in my mind, nor has there ever been. 

 The only danger was as to whether or not 

 Germany's material preparations would 

 be able to crush the Allies before the 

 character of their people had had time to 

 crystallize and prepare itself first for de- 

 fense and then for offensive operations. 



With nations as with individuals, it is 

 character that is the ultimate test. ' Forty- 

 two centimeter guns are worn out, muni- 

 tions are shot away, and food supplies 

 are eaten up, but the moral character of 

 the people remains the one enduring 

 asset which makes sacrifice possible and 

 victory assured. 



The American Revolution was won, 

 not at Yorktown, but at Lexington, when 

 it became apparent for the first time what 

 was the fiber of the American people ; 

 and so this war was won when it became 

 evident that the people of France, of 

 England, and of Russia preferred sacri- 

 fice and death to defeat. 



That all these sacrifices are justified 

 those who have followed the situation 

 closely cannot doubt. 



I am personally of the opinion that an 

 enduring moral idea is the greatest in- 

 heritance which one generation can leave 

 to its successor. 



The establishment of the democratic 

 idea, based on morals, ethics, equity, and 

 justice, which must come from this Avar, 

 is worth, not a million or ten million 

 casualties, but fifty million, if from this 

 struggle there emerge an enduring con- 

 ception as to the fundamental basis on 

 which society, progress, and' civilization 

 must rest in perpetuity. 



