78 ILLINOIS STATE DAIRYMEN'S ASSOCIATION 



market to jump away up or away down, apparently being 

 influenced more by speculation than it is now influenced. 

 It is not perfect as it stands today by any means. I re- 

 member last year I was on the board of trade in company 

 with one of our marketing experts, when the price of wheat 

 went to $2.05 per bushel, and I asked him what he thought 

 about it and what the cause of it might be. It was only a 

 few months ago that the leaders in agricultural thought 

 were telling us there was an over-production of wheat and 

 the farmer for that reason was taking a low price for his 

 wheat. I said, *'How does it happen that this extreme in- 

 crease has occurred here today?" '*0h," he says, "they 

 had the wrong information, that is all. The wrong im- 

 pression was given out, and there was no over-production 

 of wheat." "There was really an under-production, there 

 was a shortage." "The demand exceeds the supply," he 

 said, "and therefore the price has gone up quickly." I 

 took it for granted that he was right, didn't give it any 

 particular thought, but about a week later I happened to 

 be on the board of trade in company with the same gentle- 

 man, and I saw the price of wheat drop sixteen cents a 

 bushel in a few hours, and I asked him what was the mat- 

 ter, what had caused this extreme drop when there was 

 such a shortage as he had told me about the week before. 

 And he said, "Well, I guess those damned farmers have 

 over-produced again. (Laughter.) So you see we still 

 have conditions which are probably not perfect, but I men- 

 tion this to call to your attention that the condition is some- 

 what improved; and in my estimation the thing that has 

 improved, that condition more prob«il)ly than anything else 

 is the Federal-State Co-operative Crop Estimate, which 

 places in the hands of the farmers the average situation 

 the same as every one else, the best information that there 

 is available on crops and crop estimates. 



That information is not perfect but it is the best there 

 is. The brokerage houses have their own means of obtain- 

 ing estimates. They obtain those estimates because they 

 want an idea of the condition before the federal estimates 

 come out, but when the federal estimates come out they 



