196 NOETLING : PETROLEUM IN BURMA. 



once see that the large output of 4*7 millions of viss per mensem, 

 is based on erroneous suppositions. On page 178 I pointed out 

 that the number of wells at the end of the last century was pro- 

 bably not more than 130, of which 70 were productive wells. Suppos- 

 ing there were 100 and Captain Cox's estimate of 300 viss per day 

 to be correct, the approximate monthly output would not be more 

 than 9 lakhs of viss. But I think that even this reduced estimate is 

 much too high, as I doubt whether there was such a large consumption 

 of crude oil in the last century as to absorb a monthly output of 9 

 lakhs of viss, considering that during the last five years the local 

 consumption (including India and Shan States) of crude oil amounted 

 to not more than I lakh of viss. If we assume that before the influx 

 of American oil the local consumption amounted to 3 or 4 lakhs of 

 viss per mensem it is not easy to see what could have become of the 

 surplus of 5 to 6 lakhs of viss. But even supposing the estimate of 

 9 lakhs per month to be correct, we can at once dispose of the state- 

 ments of Mr. Crawfurd and Captain Hannay as being too high, and 

 that of Captain McLeod as being undoubtedly too low. 



We now come to the estimates of the members of Yule's Mission 

 to Ava. They furnish three estimates ranging from 3J lakhs of viss 

 up to 9 lakhs of viss per mensem. It remains to examine which of 

 the three statements is to be considered as the most reliable. Dr. 

 Oldham arrives at the lower estimate judging from the number of 

 carts eDgaged in the oil trade, and by supposing the average load of 

 each cart to be 100 viss. I will not argue about the number of cart- 

 loads, supposed to be 150 per day, but the estimate of 100 viss per cart- 

 load is undoubtedly much below the mark. Each cart now carries 

 12 pots, containing at least 12 viss of oil, that is to say, 12 x 12=144, 

 say 1 50 viss. 



We know, that in the oil fields nearly everything has remained 



in the same condition as it was a hundred years ago, and it is quite 



fair to suppose that the quantity of oil carried by one cart is the 



same now as it was in 1855. Dr. Oldham's second estimate 



( 242 ) 



