298 EARTHQUAKES. 



always find that predictions were verified. We might 

 even go further and predict that on certain days earth- 

 quakes would occur in certain countries, and still find 

 that in many instances our supposed power of foresight had 

 not deceived us. Thus, for instance, in Japan, where on 

 the average there are probably one or two shakings every 

 day, if prognostications were never correct there would 

 be a violation of the laws of chance. 



What is required from those who undertake to 

 forewarn us of an earthquake is an indication not only 

 of the time at which the disturbance will happen, but 

 also an indication of the area in which it is to occur. 

 Those who dwell in an area where there are certain well- 

 defined periods during which seismic activity is at a 

 maximum — if ten or fourteen days should have passed 

 without a shock — might, in many instances, find that a 

 prophecy that there would be an earthquake within the 

 next few days would prove itself correct. Also, if a severe 

 shock had taken place, a prophecy that there would be a 

 second or third smaller disturbance within a short period 

 would also meet with verification. 



Certain persons with whom I am intimate appear to 

 have persuaded themselves that they can foretell the 

 coming of an earthquake by the sultry state of the 

 atmosphere or a certain oppressiveness they feel, and an 

 instinctive feeling arises that an earthquake is at hand. 



It is said that a few minutes before many of the 

 shocks which shook New England between 1827 and 

 1847 people could foretell the coming disturbance by an 

 alteration in their stomach.^ No doubt many who dwell 

 in earthquake countries, and have been alarmed by earth- 

 quakes, are at times subject to nervous expectancy. 



The author has had such sensations himself, due, per- 

 ^ Pliil. Trans., vol. xlii. 



