PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES. 299 



haps, to a knowledge that it was the earthquake season, 

 that there had been no disturbance for some weeks, and a 

 consequent increasing state of nervous presentments. In 

 consequence of this, not only has he carefully prepared 

 his instruments for the coming shock, but he has written 

 and telegraphed to friends to do the same. 



Sometimes these guesses have proved correct. One 

 remarkable instance was a few hours prior to the severe 

 shock of February 22, 1880, when he communicated with 

 his friends in Yokohama and asked them to see that 

 their instruments were in good order. Oftener, however, 

 his prognostications have been incorrect. The point in 

 connection with this subject which he wishes to be re- 

 marked is, that the instances where earthquakes occurred 

 shortly after the receipt of his letters are carefully re- 

 membered, and often mentioned, but the instances in 

 which earthquakes did not occur appear to be entirely 

 forgotten. He is led to mention these facts because they 

 appear to be an experimental proof of what has taken 

 place in bygone times, and what still takes place, espe- 

 cially amongst savages — namely, that the record of that 

 which is remarkable survives, whilst that which is of 

 every-day occurrence quickly dies. Had the records of 

 all prognostications been preserved, the probability is 

 that we should find that they had, in the majority of 

 cases, been incorrect, whilst it would have been but in 

 very few instances they had been fulfilled. 



Prediction by the observation of natural pheno- 

 mena. — The above remarks may perhaps help us to 

 understand the prognostications of the ancient philo- 

 sophers about which Professor Antonio Favaro, of Padua, 

 has written.^ Cicero in the * De Divinatione,' speaking on 

 this subject, says that ' Grod has not predicted so much 

 ^ M. S. di Rossi, EarthqnaJtcs of Casamicciola. 



