CROP ESTIMATES, 
(To the Editors ‘* Ceylon Observer.”’) 
Drar Sirs,-—In former times managers used to estim- 
ate their crops very accurately. Agents and owneis 
relied on their estimates with confidence, and would 
have been surprised and disappointed if a deficiency 
of crop of so much as ten per cent had occurred. 
Such shortfalls as have become frequent of late were 
quite unknown. Estimates were generally revised 
and settled about July, when the fruit showed up,— 
but such a thing as a deficiency of 30 or 40 per 
cent being first discovered after crop had commenced 
was never heard of till quite recent times. Such 
disappointments are now, however, unfortunately, but 
too common. Is it that the present generation of 
planters are less able, or more careless than their 
predecessors? Certainly not! Even those old planters 
who, in former days, used to be so accurate, have, 
since 1870, been as far out in their reckonings as 
their younger neighbours. I have in mind a recent 
instance of a crop, originally estimated by a very 
careful manager, of 12 years’ experience, subsequently 
confirmed by an old stager, who knew the estate 
intimately, and again by a visitor who prides him- 
self ihat he is never deceived, yet this crop fell short 
by 50 per cent of the estimates so made and con- 
firmed, and the deficiency was not suspected till the 
gathering began! 
The simple fact is that of late years, Jeaf disease 
and adverse seasons have so impaired the strength 
of the trees that they cannot now mature 
their fruit as they used to do. Original estim- 
ates, I doubt not, are as accurate now as 
they formerly were, but there is now a continuous 
shedding of the young berries, which is often quite 
unperceived and unsuspected until revealed by the 
_ early gatherings. The berries in the cluster become 
reduced in number as they increase in size. As the 
first fruit swells, the failure of that which should 
follow eludes observation, until gathering begins, when 
the astonished manager discovers that there is little 
or nothing left behind. 
Such serious disappointments as have lately occurred 
but too frequently are extremely embarrassing 
to agents and financiers, especially when they are 
revealed at so late a period of the year; and 
they beget distrust as well as confusion, Hence the 
paramount importance of adopting such means as we 
possess for preventing them : and this may assuredly 
be done by ascertaining the actual fall of the imma- 
ture fruit. 
