106 CIRCULAR 249, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
MEASURES OF TOBACCO CONSUMPTION 
There are four measures of tobacco consumption, as follows: 
Supply and disappearance of tobacco according to type 
Quantities of tobacco used in the manufacture of tobacco 
products 
Quantities of tobacco products manufactured 
Consumption per capita of tobacco products 
Each of these measures has its own particular usefulness and 
applications. An understanding of their characteristics and inter- 
relationships is important. They are discussed in order. | 
SUPPLY AND DIsAPPEARANCE 
Tables of supply and disappearance are included in the statistics 
accompanying the discussion of tobacco types. They afford a means 
of measuring not only the annual increments to the supply of leaf 
tobacco available for manufacturing and export needs but also the 
amounts by which the supply is annually diminished. For this pur- 
pose the stocks of leaf on hand on a given date plus the crop of that 
year are taken to indicate the potential supply; potential supply less 
stocks 1 year later is taken to represent disappearance. Thus: 
Millions 
of pounds 
(1) Production, 1937, ready for market___________- PSO 3 anu ats. cia ee 300 
(2). Stocks ofvold\ tobacco oni hancdillQ 13 (se eee ee eee 500 
(3). “Fotalisupply soe oe a as i eee 800 
(4): Stocks on hand, 10-1238 22.2 = 22 ea ee ee 400 
Difference between (3) and (4) ‘“‘disappearance’”’_____________-_-- 400 
For convenience in preparation of tables, the same data would be 
presented as follows: 
Disappear- 
: ance, year 
Year Production | Stocks Oct. 1| Total supply beginning 
Oct. 1 
Million Million Million Million 
pounds pounds pounds pounds 
by Gencarpn  BiSd Bo as pe te re Cet a 300 500 800 400 
L938ie Fees Lye See ee Ore Oe Ce ee ee ae tee 400 
These figures are of great importance. Considered alone, changes 
in disappearance may, through a series of years, indicate a significant 
trend in the rate of consumption; but the trend of consumption, while 
increasing, may for a time increase at a slower or faster rate than the 
trend of production, resulting in either expanding or diminishing 
annual carry-over, in burdensome surpluses and low prices, or tem- 
porary shortages and high prices. It becomes necessary, therefore, to 
study the factors of production, supply, and disappearance not only 
in relation to themselves but in relation to each other. No study of 
price trends and of cycles of increasing and decreasing production 
should overlook these varying relationships, 
