AMERICAN TOBACCO TYPES, USES, AND MARKETS 107 
Concrete application for tables of supply and disappearance is 
found in analyzing the present or prospective marketing condition per- 
taining to specific types of tobacco. This may be observed, for 
example, by reference to the table of supply and disappearance of 
Burley tobacco, page 27. It will be noted that prices (table 7, p. 26) 
tend to be highest when the total supply is lowest. It is clear, 
also, that in years when the production exceeds the disappearance the 
surplus is carried forward into the stocks as shown for the succeeding 
years. Thus augmented, the stocks constitute an increased burden 
and may jeopardize the marketing situation for the ensuing year, 
unless production is adjusted accordingly. 
The factors of supply and disappearance are to be interpreted in 
the light of trends of consumption of the products manufactured from | 
the types of tobacco under review. For example, the trend of dis- 
appearance of Burley tobacco has been consistently upward for a long 
period of years due to the fact that increased consumption in the form 
of cigarettes more than offsets decreased consumption in pipe smoking 
and chewing forms. | 
Another characteristic is to be noted with respect to supply and 
disappearance. The total supply may remain practically stationary, 
although significant changes may occur in the component parts of 
supply. Assume, for example, that the total supply in a given year 
is 800 million pounds, and is made up. of production of 300 million 
pounds plus stocks amounting to 500 million pounds. It might ensue 
that in the following year total supply again totaled 800 million 
pounds, comprised of production of 200 million pounds, and stocks of 
600 million pounds. Or, conversely, production might be greater 
and stocks less. 
In analyzing price changes and marketing situations in general it 
will be found useful, therefore, to consider not only total supply in 
relation to elements in the demand situation, but, as indicated above, 
the factors within the supply situation. For example, the total supply 
of Burley tobacco as of October 1, 1933, was approximately 1,098 
million pounds, which was not greatly different from the supply of 
October 1, 1934, of 1,073 million pounds. The average price in the 
former year was 10.5 cents per pound and in the latter year 16.9 cents 
per pound. Here three factors, omitting quality, influenced the prices 
paid: A moderate decrease in total supply, improving economic con- 
ditions with a consequent increase in cigarette consumption, and 
finally a highly significant decrease in production. This and similar 
instances point to the conclusion that as between years when the 
total supply is approximately stationary and there are no extraneous 
factors of importance, that year will present the higher prices in which 
the crop is significantly smaller; and conversely, in years when the 
crop is significantly larger, prices are likely to be depressed even though 
total supply remains substantially unchanged. Apparently the mere 
impact of a large crop tends to depress prices whereas the smaller 
offerings when the crop is low tend to stimulate prices. 
TOBACCO STOCKS 
Statistics are published quarterly on the quantity of leaf tobacco in 
the hands of dealers and manufacturers, according to type. The law 
applies only to those manufacturers who, according to the returns of 
