48 H. I. JENSEN. 



According to the statistics of Julius Schmidt of Athens, 

 who studied the earthquakes between 1770 and 1873, 

 seismic disturbances were more frequent when the moon 

 was in perigee than at apogee. Lapparent, commenting 

 upon this, makes a further assertion that studies on oriental 

 earthquakes reveal the fact that when the earth is nearest 

 the sun shocks are most frequent. 



Fuchs shows that earthquakes are more frequent at 

 equinoxes than at solstices (see Milne). The cause of this 

 seems to me purely meteorological — more sudden changes 

 of pressure taking place at the equinoxes. 



According to Milne, a Japanese work, " Jishin Setsu," by 

 a priest named Tensho, states that earthquakes depend 

 upon the relative position of the moon with respect to 

 twenty-eight constellations. 



Professor Falb of Vienna also gained great reputation 

 some years ago by predicting some earthquakes. Unfortu- 

 nately he seems to have based his forecasts entirely on 

 the motions of the moon, and therefore soon made some 

 most incorrect predictions. For the year 1898 lie fore- 

 casted great eruptions and a tidal wave which would wreck 

 New York. As a matter of fact this year (1898) was a 

 very quiet year. 



By taking all factors into consideration it should however 

 be possible to predict earthquakes. Primarily secular con- 

 traction is admitted to be the cause of all earthquake and 

 volcanic phenomena. But this contraction is constantly^ 

 going on, and if it were not modified by other causes, we 

 should not have any grouping of seismic phenomena together 

 into particular periods, years or seasons. The modifications 

 must be caused by other factors hitherto neglected. 



The factors to be considered in predicting earthquakes 

 seem to be : — (1) Lines of weakness and faulting in the 

 earth's crust ; this factor locates places likely to be dis- 



