- 3* - 



maintained as manufacturers dipped into inventories to sustain the volume of 

 shipments. Cigar production and consumption have been on the uptrend since 

 1957« The failure of production to make a further advance in 196O-6I is prob- 

 ably a temporary interruption of this trend and may be due to the dampening 

 effects of a special tax situation- (nov eliminated) in two populous States and 

 to recessionary influences in late i960 and early 1961. The figure projected 

 for 1965-66 is based on (l) the expected increase in the male population of 

 cigar-smoking age, (2) the probable continuation of promotional efforts by the 

 industry to broaden its market, (3) some additional increase in cigarillos and 

 intermediate-size cigars, and {h) a continuation of generally favorable levels 

 of consumer incomes. It also assumes no undue disruption in manufacture and 

 consumption that might arise due to unavailablility of sufficient imported 

 cigar tobacco. 



The projected number of cigars would require about lk6 million pounds of 

 tobacco, un stemmed weight basis . In this estimate, allowance was made for the 

 broad composition of total cigar output (regular-size cigars and cigarillos, 

 and produced in domestic factories and in bonded manufacturing warehouses) and 

 the varying requirement represented by each category. The projected l46-mil- 

 lion-pound requirement represents an increase of 11 million pounds or 8 per- 

 cent over estimated average use in the recent 3 years. 



If the projected requirement is divided according to the average propor- 

 tions estimated to have prevailed in the last 3 years, 97 million pounds of 

 domestic tobacco, unstemmed weight, would be needed — about 7-1/2 million 

 pounds or 8-1/2 percent more — and about ^9 million pounds of imported tobacco — 

 an increase of 3-1/2 million pounds, also 8-l/2 percent. 



Converting the assumed domestic portion of the projected total require- 

 ment for cigars to a farm - sales weight basis facilitates comparisons with 

 tobacco statistics shown on that basis. The following shows these projections 

 and the estimated average use of U. S. tobaccos in the recent 3 years: 



Item 



Average, 1958-59— 1960-61: Projected, 1965-66 





Million pounds, farm- Million pounds, farm- 

 sales weight sales weight 



Total domestic tobaccos 

 used in cigars, including : 

 noncigar types 



Filler 



Binder and wrapper* 



: 107.7 116.9 



: 83.2 90.0 

 : 24.5 26.9 



*For wrapper, estimates do not reflect allowance that must be made for leaf 

 selectivity and noncigar use of trimmings. 



