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However, existing stocks of Cuban tobacco held by manufacturers of 

 blended cigars might have a duration of 2 to 3 years if use is further curtailed. 

 Blended filler cigars and cigarillos made in the United States may be con- 

 sidered in two broad categories: Group 1, containing Cuban tobacco ; and Group 

 2, consisting entirely of non-Cuban tobacco. Group 1 cigars and cigarillos 

 are estimated to account for about 57 percent, and Group 2 for about 33 percent, 

 of United States output. If actual developments were in accordance with the 

 appraisal given above, the share of the market formerly held by the predomi- 

 nantly Cuban tobacco cigars would largely, though probably not entirely, shift 

 towards the Group 1 blended cigars . This would create an incentive for maximum 

 extension of the use of Cuban tobacco in this cigar group. However, the re- 

 placement of Cuban tobacco over this 2- to 3-year period would take place at 

 an uneven pace because of the differing positions of individual firms with 

 respect to their own stocks of Cuban tobacco . 



Alternative Supplies 



Regardless of the exact rate at which stocks of Cuban tobacco might be 

 used up in different types of cigars, eventually some 30 million pounds 

 (unstemmed weight) of other tobacco would be required each year as a replace- 

 ment for Cuban tobacco, provided total cigar consumption is maintained at 

 recent levels . 



Where could the tobacco to replace Cuban tobacco come from? The prob- 

 lems of successfully developing new blends of filler that entirely eliminate 

 Cuban tobacco in the Group 1 cigars are considered by the industry to be 

 serious . Although adjustments could proceed with some gradualness while stocks 

 of Cuban tobacco lasted, these adjustments will present increasing difficulty 

 as these stocks sink toward the point of exhaustion. The conceivable alter- 

 native adjustments are (l) substitution of only other imported types, (2) 

 substitution of other imported types together with domestic types, and (3) 

 substitution of only domestic types. 



The view most often expressed.by manufacturers is that the tobaccos to 

 be substituted would have to come from tropical or subtropical producing areas 

 in order to obtain the desired characteristics of flavor and aroma. However, 

 informed persons among grower groups, and a few in the trade, think it should 

 be possible to expand the use of domestic types at least as partial substitutes. 

 The second alternative appears to be the most likely, but there is no objec- 

 ti-vebasis for estimating the degree of substitution that might take place 

 between the domestic types and non-Cuban imports . 



Several manufacturing firms are giving attention to and experimenting 

 with imported tobaccos not previously Used in their blends . This has been 

 occurring not only because of the uncertainty #ith respect to Cuban supplies, 

 but also to develop additional blends that would appeal to consumers and 

 lessen manufacturers ' dependence on juSt a few sources of supply. Efforts of 

 manufacturers to modify existing blende or create new ones are naturally 

 highly secret for competitive reasons, and specific information on progress, 



