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promising developments, successes, or failures is not available. Statistics 

 imports for consumption indicate that some imported tobaccos, previously of 

 negligible importance in U. S. cigar manufacture, are now being utilized in 

 increasingly significant quantities. It appears that some of these newer im- 

 ported tobaccos may be regarded as the ones most likely to be substituted as 

 the percentage of Cuban tobacco in the cigar blends is reduced. Whether or not 

 they can be fully substituted by gradual steps and consumer acceptance of tne 

 cigars still be maintained, it is impossible to know at this stage. 



To the extent that declared import values provide a basis for comparison, 

 the tobaccos rrom the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Indonesia, and Brazil that 

 have been used have some comparability with the imports of Cuban scrap. The 

 Cuban tobacco that comes in as scrap finds its main use in the Group 1 blenaed 

 cigars mentioned above. The average declared value plus duty of Cuban scrap 

 has been near 70 cents per pound for that used in the last year or two. The 

 declared value plus duty of tobaccos (largely in scrap form) from the above- 

 mentioned countries ranged from 56 to 83 cents per pound in the last 2 years. In 

 the year ended Sept. 30, 196l, about 12.6 million pounds of Cuban tobacco enter- 

 ed consumption channels as scrap— 2^ million pounds less than in 1959-60. The 

 quantity of scrap and filler (stemmed basis) from the Dominican Republic, 

 Colombia, Indonesia, and Brazil that entered consumption channels in I96O-6I 

 totaled about 2.6 million pounds --up 2.0 million pounds from 1959-60. The 

 tobacco from these sources largely arrives in the United States in unstemmed 

 form and then is converted to scrap. The figures on total tobacco arrivals in 

 unstemmed form from these four countries in the past 2 years indicate that 

 stocks of such tobaccos have been accumulating, and may foreshadow a further 

 stepping-up of their use. 



With the ending of clear Havana and all-Havana filler cigars in the 

 United States, it is hypothesized that smokers of these would probably largely 

 turn to the blended filler cigars designated as Group 1 above. If this should 

 prove to be the result, the requirement for domestic types would be increased 

 since they compose a substantial part of the blends in Group 1 cigars. To 

 illustrate: If the approximately 67O million cigars now made with predomi- 

 nantly Cuban tobacco should be supplanted by a similar number of cigars made 

 with blended filler containing 60 percent domestic tobaccos, this in itself 

 would increase annual use of domestic types by 9 million pounds (unstemmed 

 weight) . 



If in the presently constituted Group 1 blended filler cigars, the 1 

 of Cuban tobacco were offset only by directly substituting other imported to- 

 baccos, then the deficit left by a cutoff of Cuban tobacco* would resu I 

 only the moderate increase in use of domestic types indicated in the 

 paragraph. Under this assumption, manufacturers would try to meet the ■ 

 part of the deficit by sharply increasing imports from countries which in the 

 past have not been major suppliers of tobacco to the United States. The ci 

 abilities of foreign sources other than Cuba to supply suitable 

 require considerable additional exploratory work, Lnvestlgal 



tion--much of which can only be undertaken by the industry itself. S rms 

 are already making efforts to do this. 



