- ko - 



As pointed out above, if cigar consumption should "be maintained, producers 

 of domestic cigar tobacco might be expected to supply about 9 mi l lion pounds 

 (unstemmed weight) of the 30-million-pound gap caused by eliminating Cuban 

 tobacco. Possibly some firms might be able to transform gradually their cigar 

 filler blends by using some additional domestic tobaccos beyond the Q-nrfiUnn. 

 pound figure (equivalent to 10 million pounds, farm-sales weight) indicated 

 above. If such should prove to be the case, U.S. growers would certainly make 

 the expansion if prices offered warrant such expansion. However, until it be- 

 came clear that an expanded outlet was available for U.S. cigar tobacco types, 

 it would be most unwise for growers to increase production markedly. 



Assuming a stoppage were to go in effect, there would be a period extend- 

 ing for probably 2 to 3 years during which adjustments— some abrupt and some 

 gradual — would be occurring. During this adjustment period, the extent to which 

 domestic production of cigar tobacco might need to be expanded could be better 

 appraised. As the industry adapted to the new situation, a great variety of 

 factors would be influencing the reactions of individual firms. If at that 

 time the broad outlines of adjustment were such that a sizable increase in 

 production of domestic types of cigar tobacco was needed, it should be encour- 

 aged promptly so that the tobacco would have time to age properly. 



In this connection, it should be noted that this appraisal rests on an 

 assumption that cigar smoking would shift but not decline if Cuban tobaccos 

 were no longer a component of cigars. This is the opinion of many, but it is 

 not unanimous, and the possibility of a decline in the total volume of cigars 

 smoked cannot be dismissed. This could come from a reduction in rate of cigar 

 smoking or some stopping of cigar smoking entirely. 



It is estimated that there are about 13 million cigar smokers. Around 

 k million men smoke cigars every day but !§■ to 2 million of these also smoke 

 pipes and cigarettes regularly. The other 9 million smoke cigars occasionally— 

 the frequency varies greatly but they do not average 1 per day. Of the 9 mil- 

 lion occasional cigar smokers, perhaps 6 to 7 million smoke cigarettes and 

 pipes regularly and the other 2 to 3 mil lion confine their smoking entirely to 

 cigars on an occasional basis. It is clear that a very substantial percentage 

 of both regular and occasional cigar smokers are experienced consumers of other 

 tobacco products. Conceivably, if touiti -product smokers should become dissatis- 

 fied with the cigars they are offered, they would turn more towards cigarettes 

 and pipes, and the consumer market for cigars would suffer. If this should 

 happen on a sufficient scale, the outlet for domestic cigar tobaccos could be 

 reduced below present levels. The problem would be whether, in the absence 

 of Cuban tobacco, blends can be developed and existing blends can be modified 

 so that cigars would continue to win wide consumer acceptance. Although many 

 in the industry think the cigar industry could continue to hold its share of 

 the market, it should be remembered that there are alternative forms of smoking 

 already widely practiced by cigar smokers. 



