Statistics on tobacco imports in the last year and a half indicate t: 

 tobaccos from the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Indonesia, and Brazil may be 

 regarded by manufacturers as partial substitutes for Cuban tobacco in bl 

 filler cigars though not in clear Havana cigars. The declared values per 

 (plus duties) of these imported tobaccos range fairly near those for Cuban 

 tobacco imported in scrap form, but are well below those for the Cuban filler 

 leaf used in clear Havana cigars . Although there has been an upsurge in im- 

 ports of cigar tobacco from the Philippine Republic --our second most importc- 

 supplier--such tobacco goes mainly into lower-priced cigars and cannot be re- 

 garded as a substitute for Cuban tobacco. 



Assuming that Cuban tobacco were not available and that total cigar con- 

 sumption were maintained, smokers of the predominantly Cuban tobacco cigars 

 presumably would shift to the blended filler cigars most nearly in the same 

 price brackets as the Cuban tobacco brands formerly smoked. The "blended 

 filler" cigars that would be expanding sales because of this shift probably 

 have contained an average of around 60 percent domestic filler tobacco in 

 their blends and around kO percent Cuban tobacco. If this percentage of 

 domestic tobacco should be continued, the above-mentioned shift in cigars 

 would imply an increased use of domestic cigar tobacco amounting to about 9 

 million pounds (unstemmed weight). This would be a minimum and assumes 

 that all the Cuban tobacco part of the blend would be replaced by other 

 imported tobaccos. The total gap for the industry if Cuban tobacco is elimi- 

 nated and stocks exhausted would be some 30 million pounds annually --or more 

 if cigar consumption increases in the years ahead, as seems likely. If 

 domestic types were drawn upon only to the extent of 9 million pounds as en- 

 visaged above, the cigar tobacco deficit would be about 21 million pounds 

 annually. Cigar consumption in this country would decline unless this gap 

 were to be closed by bringing in additional suitable tobacco from foreign 

 sources or developing acceptable blends that would permit even greater use of 

 domestic tobacco. 



