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If no more Cuban tobacco were to be available, individual cigar firms 

 would react in different ways depending on individual circumstances. Initially, 

 the reactions would depend on the level of stocks of Cuban tobacco held by 

 the firms and the kinds of cigars made. But if the cutoff of Cuban tobacco 

 were to last for a long time, the industry as a whole, after exhausting stocks, 

 would be faced with finding a replacement for the approximately 30 million 

 pounds (unstemmed-processing weight) of Cuban tobacco which are used annually. 

 This would be the case if cigar consumers maintained their consumption level, 

 despite changes in the makeup or unavailability of the brands to which they 

 were accustomed. Many in the industry hold the opinion that aggregate cigar 

 consumption would be maintained. 



At present, stocks of Cuban tobacco in the United States, are larger 

 than normal, but stocks held by individual firms vary considerably. On the 

 average, the stocks held by a substantial segment of the manufacturers whose 

 entire output is composed of clear Havana cigars, is sufficient for about 10 

 months' cigar output. In the remainder of the industry (mostly firms whose 

 output is blended filler cigars and all or nearly all -Havana filler cigars), 

 stocks are sufficient on the average for 17 months' cigar output. This estimate 

 is based on the average rate of use of Cuban tobacco in the last 3 years. In 

 the recent 12 -month period the rate of use has declined and, on the basis of 

 this reduced rate, stocks of Cuban tobacco would sustain about 2d. months of 

 cigar output. Following a cutoff of Cuban tobacco, manufacturers would take 

 steps to stretch their existing stocks. The manufacturers of blended filler 

 cigars will be able to do this to a much greater extent than the segment pro- 

 ducing only "clear Havanas" or "all -Havana filler" cigars. It appears likely, 

 however, that even with this stretch-out, production of blended filler cigars 

 containing Cuban tobacco would cease entirely in 2 to 3 years and that pro- 

 duction of "clear Havana" and "all -Havana filler" cigars would stop entirely 

 by the end of 1;| years. By the end of these time periods, all firms would 

 have exhausted their stocks of Cuban tobacco. 



If our imports of Cuban tobacco were to cease, most manufacturers of 

 clear Havana cigars regard the problems confronting them as extremely difficult 

 and probably insurmountable . Most of these manufacturers state that they know 

 of no other tobaccos that would suffice for these cigars. Experimental blending 

 with new tobaccos, market testing of new or changed brands, promotional work, 

 acquiring sufficient inventories and experience in handling unfamiliar tobaccos 

 — all these steps would involve such financial risks and problems that some of 

 these firms probably would terminate their cigar business. On the other hand, 

 considerable experimental work is being carried on by the largest cigar firms 

 in the industry, and the gradual changing of blends appears more feasible for 

 them. Some firms are making efforts to develop additional blends that will 

 appeal to consumers and also lessen their dependence on just a few supply 

 sources. A widely held view among manufacturers of blended filler cigars is 

 that the replacement for Cuban tobacco in blends would have to be some tropical 

 or subtropical tobacco in order to obtain the aroma and flavor needed. However, 

 informed persons among United States grower groups and a few in the trade think 

 it would be possible to expand the use of domestic types as partial substitutes. 



