Table 5 —Comparison of linear equation results for cigar tobacco acreage, 1957-71 1/ 



Equation 



Intercept 



1.1 



1.2 



1.3 



1.4 



1.5 



2.1 



2.2 

 2.3 



2.4 

 2.5 



3.1 

 3.2 

 3.3 

 3.4 



3.5 



Time 



1957= 



57 



Acreage 



harvested, 



t-1 



1*2.750 



-.212 

 (1.61) 



.357 

 (1.98) 



62.919 



-.178 

 (1.21) 





29.847 





1.130 

 (12.41) 



63.577 



-.170 

 (1.13) 





-6.096 





.925 

 (9.88) 



51.043 -.488 

 (1.25) 



54.510 -.716 

 (6.00) 



66.100 -.913 

 (20.21) 



81.670 -.976 

 (1.88) 



72.380 -1.046 



(6.22) 



0.804 

 4.289 

 3.475 

 8.890 

 -18.436 



Price 



rec'd, 



t-1 



2/ 



Farm 



wage 



rate 



3/ 



: Price : Dairy : Prices : Acreage shift 



:wage ratio, : prices : paid : ASCS 



: t-1 : index : index : trans- 



: 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : fers 7/ 



CAP 

 8/ 



Std. 

 error 



r 2 

 9/ 



Cigar filler (Types 41-44) 



17.035 

 (1.16) 



25.091 

 (3.09) 



31.39+ 

 (3.73) 



31.540 

 (3.65) 



25.920 

 (2.44) 



-.194 

 (2.28) 



-.339 

 (6.89) 



-3.532 

 (6.48) 



Cigar binder (Types 51-56) 



4.915 

 (.22) 



-8.867 

 (.74) 



13.804 

 (1.54) 





17.542 

 (2.56) 









-7.190 

 (.34) 



18.705 



(.82) 







-13.079 

 (1.48) 



4.065 



(.82) 









Shade-grown 



cigar 



.949 

 (5.72) 



4.011 

 (3.16) 



-13.789 

 (4.42) 





.950 



(5.48) 



4.201 

 (2.90) 



-12.797 

 (2.85) 





I.036 

 (5.47) 



4.438 

 (2.69) 



-13.158 

 (3-61 





1.032 

 (5.47) 



4.613 

 (2.63) 



-11.401 

 (2.11) 





6.095 

 (2.25) 







1.386 

 (6.64) 



-.231 

 (1.10) 



wrapper (Types 61-62) 



-.049 

 (.32) 



-.081 

 (.45) 



D.W. 

 10/ 





0.954 



.98 



2.54 





1.073 



• 97 



2.50 





1.595 



• 97 



I.62 



1.423 

 (.67) 





.98 



2.67 





1.374 



.95 



1.90 



3.519 

 (1.83) 





1.487 



.85 



.95 



2.505 

 (4.06) 



-.484 

 (6.69) 



.656 



• 97 



1.49 



1.456 

 (1.90) 



-.527 

 (7.91) 



.567 



.98 



I.98 







1.534 



.86 



1.37 



1.309 

 (1.64) 



-.548 

 (7.58) 



.576 



.98 



1.88 



.679 



.91 



2.22 



.709 



• 91 



2.24 



.765 



.89 



2.03 



.794 



.89 



2.03 



1.013 



.94 



1.23 



1/ In thousand acres. Values in parentheses below regression coefficients are their t values. 



2/ Average tobacco price received by farmers, dollars per pound. 



3/ Dollars per hour. Wisconsin data for cigar binder; South Atlantic data for equations 3.1 and 3.2; New England data for 

 equations 3-3> 3.4, and 3.5 



4/ Prices received, cents per pound divided by farm wage rate, and dollars per hour. Pennsylvania data for cigar filler; Wis- 

 consin data for binder; New England wage rates for wrapper. 



5/ Index of prices received by farmers for dairy products, United States, 1967=100. 



6/ Index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and farm wage rates, 1967=100. 



7/ Reallocated acreage, by the Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service, 1970-71. 



8/ Diversion to Soil Bank, 1957, and Cropland Adjustment Program, 1966-71. 



9/ Coefficient of determination. 



10 / Durbin-Watson statistic. 



14 



