SECURITY OF INVESTMENTS. 79 



in an established industry, though it does not render the income per- 

 manent, but prosperity is very liable to invite competition. It is true 

 that with rubber the decline of prices from this cause is likely to be a 

 remote danger, but the more brilliant the success of the industry the 

 greater would be the certainty of the extensive participation of all 

 suitable regions. 



To pick up from the surface of the ground large-sized nuggets of 

 gold is very profitable, but to operate gold mines is often a losing 

 venture. The ore may fall below the estimated richness, the mines 

 may be difficult to drain, the machinery may be unexpectedly expen- 

 sive, the wages may advance, or the management may prove dishonest. 

 A rubber plantation yielding perpetually an abundance of high-grade 

 rubber might be "as good as a gold mine," but investors must expect 

 that the profits of plantations will be subject to vicissitudes. It may 

 be legitimate to represent the profits of a certain rubber enterprise as 

 more sure than its competitors in the same or other lines of investment, 

 but those who claim that rubber enjoys any special or unique security 

 either deceive themselves or wish to deceive others. The expenses 

 for land, equipment, culture, and management will vary; likewise the 

 yield, quality, and market price. If the margin of possible profit be 

 larger than in older agricultural industries, the universal lack of experi- 

 ence makes it the more difficult and uncertain of realization. More- 

 ever, the demonstration that rubber culture is really a highly profitable 

 business would attract so many aspirants to fortune that the anticipated 

 rise in the price of rubber might never be realized; and, although 

 there is not likely to be danger of overproduction for many years to 

 come, the "perpetual dividends" sometimes advertised can scarcely 

 be insured. Finalty, the artificial production of rubber is a distinct 

 possibility, pursued by the chemists with eagerness and confidence, and 

 the discovery of such a process might completely change the prospects 

 of an investment in rubber culture. 



The careless confusion of the milk or latex with the sap is responsible 

 for many of the misleading representations that the profits of rubber 

 culture are sure. Even the sending of stockholders or disinterested 

 parties to count the thrifty young trees on the plantations does not 

 insure the anticipated returns, since, as already explained, the growth 

 of the tree either in nature or in cultivation does not certify the pro- 

 duction of paying quantities of rubber. That rubber planting is as 

 sure as raising wheat, apples, or strawberries, or keeping a dairy, 

 are misleading statements, to s&y the least. 



Even if rubber came, like sugar, from the sap of the tree, it would 

 not follow that the yield would be uniform either in quantity or quality. 

 Different varieties of canes and beets vary greatly in this respect, to 

 say nothing of the influence of soils and climatic conditions. With 

 older farming 1 industries these elements of success or failure are known 



