4 A XATIOXAL LUMBER A1\D TOEEST POLICY. 



industrial, and teclmiccil research, and in demonstration of technical 

 methods. I believe that a great many vakiable things for the himber 

 industry can thus be brought about. 



But neither the himber industry nor the public can ignore the fact 

 that the great fundamental problems, which not only involve the per- 

 manence and stability of the interests dependent on our forests but 

 also gravel}^ affect the national welfare, are not being solved. These 

 problems fall into four general groups — those relating to the causes 

 of overproduction, those that concern the supply, character, well- 

 being, and stability of labor, the problem of the continuance of 

 private forests and of stumpage supply, and certain questions relat- 

 ing to our public forests. 



THE LUMBER INDUSTRY STILL UNSTABLE. 



We must frankly recognize the fact that the elements that caused 

 the unstable condition of the lumber industry prior to the war still 

 remain, and constitute a danger for the future. To recall the situa- 

 tion at that time and the principal cause of trouble would be only to 

 repeat the oft-told story of the speculative character of ownership 

 of timberlands, the pressure to liquidate, the difficulties of financing 

 stumpage, the excess mill capacity, the unorganized character of the 

 industry, and various like matters; all contributing to cause prema- 

 ture cutting and overproduction, with its depression, losses, failures, 

 interrupted operation, intermittent employment, and other ills. We 

 may be able to point out certain elements of strength that may tend 

 to steady the industrj^ for a time, but we still have a great f a,ctor of 

 uncertainty in the existence of large bodies of timber which their 

 owners are seeking every opportunity to T>lace on the market ; and 

 on many cases will be forced even at a loss to manufacture, because 

 of financial pressure. Whenever markets improve there is the in- 

 evitable tendency to increase production to utilize surplus mill ca- 

 pacity, and there are always interests ready to inaugurate neAv mill 

 enterprises when improved transportation or other factors seem to 

 offer a favorable chance for an undertaking. 



These are essentially the conditions that make for a periodic over- 

 flow of production and create unstable conditions. vSome persons 

 may be so favorably situated in the matter of high-grade products, 

 low-cost production, or other factors, that they can meet even the ex- 

 traordinary 'fluctuations of industrial conditions. But for the in- 

 dustry as a whole there exists an element of uncertainty because of 

 the urgent pressure of stumpage for production. I do not see how 

 there can be a permanent basis of conservatism, stability, and indi- 

 vidual strength so long as this condition exists. 



The public is concerned because of the injury and loss that ac- 

 comiDanies demoralized industrial conditions, and because under such 



