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local exporters vied with each other in offering new oil for delivery to 

 customers abroad at lower and lower rates, while the owners of spot oil 

 in Messina tried their best to rid themselves of the stocks in their ware- 

 houses. 



Local speculators likewise took a hand in the slump, which, however, 

 was in no wise justified by the satistical position of the article, and bet- 

 ween the beginning of September and the end of October the price of oil 

 for prompt delivery was depressed from c/tt 15. — to cM 12.—, and that of 

 oil for delivery from <^ 11. — to &ft 10.50. This movement had for its 

 result to make foreign buyers very reticent of buying oil for prompt delivery, 

 and to keep them from giving even to the low prices of oil for delivery 

 the attention which they merited on the intrinsic strength of the situation. 

 It was only, so to speak, on the threshold of the new crop, that is to 

 say when in the month of November the first large shipments of boxed 

 fruit were being shipped abroad, that a view began to spring up that the 

 quantity of fruit on the trees had been generally largely over-estimated, 

 and that in the most favourable case the new crop would only equal that 

 of the previous year. 



The spread of this conviction put a stop to the decline of the market, 

 and at this juncture, of course, the upward reaction began to make itself 

 felt, with the result that within a few days' time new oil for delivery had 

 risen to c4t 10.75. In the beginning of December it had further advanced 

 to c/fi 11. — , and until the arrival on the market of the new oil from 

 cM 12.25 to c4i 12.50 was being paid for available old lemon oil. 



In the meantime, the slump during the months of September and 

 October had resulted in local speculators and exporters being caught 

 with large uncovered sales, and when the first deliveries fell due in the 

 month of December both the exporters and the local contractors called 

 for larger quantities of oil than the manufacturers were able to supply. 



Whereas in the previous year, at the beginning of the season 1910/1911, 

 there was a balance of over 100000 kilos of old oil at the disposal of the 

 export-trade, barely 30000 kilos of old stock was found to be similarly 

 available in December 1911. This scarcity of oil caused a slow tigh- 

 tening of the prices, which recovered to o4i 11.50 in the first half of 

 January. 



Early in the second half of January the East- and North-coasts of 

 Sicily were visited by severe gales, which caused enormous quantities of 

 lemons to fall, and also worked serious havoc among the trees. The 

 quantity of fallen fruit was so large that, in order not to lose the whole, 

 a portion of it was used only for the manufacture of citrate of lime, and 

 the idea of working up the fruit for essential oil was given up. This 

 meant a not inconsiderable shortage in the production of lemon oil, and 

 afforded a fresh excuse for advances in the quotations. The price rose 

 rapidly by leaps and bounds to o4i 12.50 at the beginning of February, 



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