— 32 — 



then advanced by leaps and bounds in June to 8,50 marks and in 

 July to over 11,00 marks, at which level they still stand. 



It is clear that even heavy uncovered contracts would not readily 

 have led to such an unheard-of advance in the prices, if the general 

 conditions had not favoured the movement, inasmuch as the manufac- 

 turers of lemon oil and citrate of lime, owing to the favourable devel- 

 opment of the trade in these two articles, were abundantly supplied 

 with means which enabled them to take full advantage of the market, 

 and by very cleverly supporting it with always comparatively small 

 quantities of marketable oil forced the buyers (who already had the 

 knife at the throat) to pay constantly increasing prices. But a further 

 fact has hereby also come to the light, and one which had not been 

 expected in such a degree, namely that in spite of the decidedly larger 

 exports of oil as compared with the previous year, no large stocks of 

 lemon oil had accumulated abroad; notwithstanding the surprisingly 

 rapid advance in the prices, a very animated demand arose from the 

 side of foreign buyers who were compelled, whether they liked it or 

 not, to pay the high prices of the day. 



When forming an opinion of the probable movement of the prices 

 of this article during the next few months, until the new essence 

 comes in, various circumstances have to be taken into consideration. 

 On the one hand, it goes without saying that both the local and the 

 foreign consumers in view of the high prices ruling have cut down their 

 purchases to the lowest limits, and will endeavour to restrict them further 

 until the time of the new harvest; on the other hand, there is no doubt 

 that a large quantity is still uncovered locally which has to be satisfied 

 before the new harvest, so that in any case a very brisk demand will 

 hardly be wanting. Now if it is considered that even the most liberal 

 estimates of the stocks in the hands of manufacturers, speculators and 

 exporters, as already mentioned, do not exceed barely 15000 kilos, 

 and that this has to meet the requirements for quite three months, 

 one cannot shut one's eyes to the fact that a decline of the prices 

 cannot be hoped for, but that it is very well possible, if not to say 

 probable, that several orders to buy arriving at the same time will 

 easily drive the prices up still further. 



A matter which should not be left unsaid is that the adulteration 

 of lemon oil at the present high prices has lately again acquired larger 

 dimensions, as many exporters endeavour to reduce in this manner 

 their loss on earlier cheap contracts for forward delivery. 



Under the present circumstances it is particularly important to form 

 a clear notion of the presumable movement of the price of essence 

 during the coming manufacturing season. 



In the first place, with regard to the conditions of the harvest, 

 the reports from the various districts differ very considerably. Whilst 



