— 33 ~ 



the crop in the large producing districts on the North coast of Sicily 

 is estimated at about 15% less than that of last year, the lemon 

 gardens on the East coast appear to promise a better result, so that 

 the total harvest is on the average estimated as approximately the 

 same as that of the previous year. But it should not be lost sight 

 of that especially on the East coast the first blossom has been less 

 good, and consequently a large proportion of the fruit now on the 

 trees will only come in for the later manufacturing months. 



It is further taken into consideration that in the coming winter 

 the lemons will for the first time be admitted free of duty into Ger- 

 many, and that this in all probability will have the effect of withdrawing 

 a large quantity of fruit from the manufacture of essence. 



Finally it is natural that in the first months of the manufacturing 

 season the market will be flooded with a particularly brisk demand 

 for lemon oil from abroad, where only very small stocks can exist, 

 and that to satisfy this demand only a comparatively small quantity 

 of free oil will be available. Quite exceptionally large purchases for 

 forward delivery, at prices of 7,25 to 7,50 marks, have namely been 

 made here by a few speculators and by the Union of manufacturers 

 of citrate of lime and lemon oil, to which I have already repeatedly 

 referred in my previous reports, and the former — all people with 

 plenty of capital — as well as the latter, will in any case only place 

 their oil slowly and carefully on the market, so that the market will 

 never suffer from a glut. 



Under these conditions it is hardly possible to err when assuming 

 that the prices of lemon oil in the first months of the manufacturing 

 season will remain at the basis of about 7,25 to 7,75 marks, and in 

 the first few weeks of November will certainly go a good deal higher 

 still. How the oil market will subsequently shape itself will then depend 

 chiefly upon the movement of the trade in lemons in cases, and upon 

 the steps which the Union may take. But a return to the former 

 very cheap prices appears out of the question, if it is considered that 

 in spite of last year's favourable manufacturing conditions, there was 

 not sufficient oil at disposal to satisfy the world's consumption without 

 a violent convulsion of the market. 



Mandarin Oil. The old oil has been almost entirely used 

 up, and the small parcels which change hands here fetch about 

 33,50 marks. 



The new harvest appears unfortunately to turn out very bad. 

 The trees which last year produced a rich crop, now carry very little 

 fruit, and the latter is small and undeveloped owing to the continuous 

 drought. In consequence of this the new manufacturing season will 

 probably set in with prices at about 32 marks. 



3 



