— 37 — 



Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter, and The Times of Ceylon) we were 

 bound to consider Mr. Jayasuriya as the author. 



Clove Oil. It now has the appearance as if the pessimistic 

 among the correspondents were after all right, for since we last ex- 

 pressed an opinion on the harvest of 1906/7, reports have been accumul- 

 ating which say that the crop only amounts to barely 60000 bales. 

 Now, as the consumption of Europe and America alone in the course 

 of a year is estimated at quite 60000 bales, but as the whole of the 

 available stocks in London, New York, and Holland, are only said 

 to amount to 41000 bales (March 1, 1907) it may be taken as 

 probable that this quantity will not satisfy the world's requirements 

 until the harvest 1907/8 becomes available, which at the earliest would 

 be the case at the end of October. Very little is on the way; for instance, 

 the shipments in the month of January 1907 only came to 5000 bales, 

 against 18000 in January 1906, and 23000 in January 1905. Three 

 fourths of the result of the harvest is said to have been contracted for, 

 for shipment to Europe and America, whilst the so-called „duty cloves" 

 representing one fourth of the production were taken off the 

 market by an English Syndicate. The demand from India amounting 

 to about 40000 bales, could not be covered, and it is stated that 

 Bombay has already commenced looking out for supplies in Europe. 

 A speculator backed up by capital appears to control there the trade 

 in this article completely. 



Under these circumstances the stocks in Europe and America will 

 shrink considerably this year, or may possibly vanish altogether, and 

 for the first shipments of the 1907/8 harvest, a brisk demand will 

 have to be recorded. It would be too early at the present day to 

 draw conclusions as to the result of this season, and it is all the less 

 possible to form an opinion, as it cannot yet be ascertained whether 

 the damages caused to the plantations during the harvest of 1904/5 

 by unsuitable picking, will make themselves further felt in a disadvant- 

 ageous manner. On the whole, the opinion prevails that during the 

 summer the prices will experience a considerable increase, and we 

 also cannot entirely shut our eyes to the grounds which are brought 

 forward in support of this assertion, although we are inclined to treat 

 all reports on this subject, after our own experience, with scepticism. 

 If it should really happen that the speculative stocks in Europe and 

 America some day were completely absorbed by the consumption, this 

 would at least have the effect of making it a much more simple 

 matter to form an opinion on the market for the following season. 



In 1906, no fewer than 24000 bales were imported in Hamburg, 

 against about 19500 in 1905, about 9600 in 1904, and about 17000 

 in 1903. These figures give no approximate picture of the actual 

 consumption of this article in Germany, as some of the larger firms, 



