— 45 — 



With regard to the individual essences, it may be said of Bergamot 

 Oil that the prospects of the new harvest were neither brilliant nor bad. 



The estimates made by experts did not hold out the prospect of 

 such a good season as the previous one; on the contrary, it was 

 thought that the harvest would be 25 to 3O°/ smaller than the last 

 one. In spite of this it was considered that the coming harvest could 

 be characterised as satisfactory, and there was every reason to assume 

 that the prices would move on a lower level than during the last few 

 months of the preceding season. The old oil was so to speak entirely 

 cleared out, and even up to shortly before the appearance of the 

 new oil it still fetched a price of 21.50 marks per kilo, whilst bergamot 

 oil was offered abroad by speculators far below this level, and was also 

 purchased at that. 



As soon as the manufacture commenced, the situation changed 

 completely. The very first trials already made it clear that the ber- 

 gamot fruit had this year a quite exceptionally small oil-content, a fact 

 which has naturally a most important bearing on the shaping of the 

 market. There were districts in which the yield of oil remained up 

 to 3O°/ behind that of the preceding year, and although the state 

 of affairs was not equally bad everywhere, it would not be far out to 

 estimate the deficiency in any case at least at 2O°/ . This observation 

 brought an immediate change over the market. The export would 

 from this moment have to reckon upon a bad crop, instead of an 

 average one. The manufacturers were at once placed before the fact 

 that the new oil would cost them much more that they had expected. 



The result of this was that the manufacturers, in order to recover 

 their expenses to some extent, began to ask higher prices, and could 

 under no circumstances be induced to make concessions, as they would 

 then actually have lost money. 



In the meantime, urgent shipping instructions arrived from abroad; 

 the exporters, who had partly sold without cover, were compelled, in 

 view of these demands, to commence fulfilling their obligations, and 

 in this way the small quantities of new oil which came on the market 

 were readily snatched up at constantly increasing prices. 



In the course of December the prices advanced slowly but firmly 

 to 23 marks; and when constantly more pressing requirements had to 

 be met with, and the manufacturers were appealed to for goods with 

 increasing urgency, the quotations up to the end of January jumped 

 up rapidly to a height of 26 to 27 marks. Here the progress came 

 to a standstill, and as at the high figures the manufacturers showed 

 an inclination to realise, the purchasers withdrew completely from 

 the market, in the hope of depressing the prices in this manner. As 

 a matter of fact, a few weak manufacturers, who were possibly badly 

 informed about the position of the market, were induced to conclude 



