— 72 — 



the occurrences of the last six months, for in spite of the obstinate 

 resistance of the producers, the quotations of the oil have since that 

 time declined without intermission. This downward movement of the 

 market would doubtless have proceeded more rapidly if not large 

 stocks at high cost -prices had been held in Europe and America, the 

 holders of which also used every possible effort to protect themselves 

 against the prejudicial effects of the downward movement. Finally, 

 the holders, in face of the approaching harvest, and not the least 

 on account of the stringency of the money market, were forced to 

 realise, and the prices gradually fell to their present level. This, 

 however, has not taken place without some temporary reactions. 



There are three different estimates of the approaching harvest, 

 which show the following figures : — 



I. 

 Hokkaido about 170000 kin 



11. 

 abt. 120000 kin abt. 



in. 

 150000 kin 



Yamagata „ 20000 „ 

 Bingo Bitchiu „ 100 000 „ 



„ 25000 „ „ 

 80000 „ 



20000 „ 

 1 00 000 „ 



about 290000 kin 



abt. 225000 kin abt. 



270000 kin 



or an average of 



about 260000 kin. 







To this must be added about 60000 kin stocks at various places 

 in the interior, and also about 100 000 kin oil unsold in the hands 

 of the refiners, so that a total of about 420000 kin may possibly 

 be available for consumption, against about 275000 kin in 1906 1 ) 

 and about 430000 kin in 1905. Although the final result of the 

 harvest will naturally depend above all upon the weather during the 

 next few months, it may in our opinion be assumed from these 

 figures that, if no unforeseen circumstances upset human calculation, 

 the prospect of a hardening of the quotations is for the present very 

 small indeed. 



According to our correspondents, the cultivation in the Province 

 of Bingo Bitchiu is smaller this year than in 1906, which must be 

 attributed to the fact that the price of rice has advanced to an un- 

 expected height. This has induced many farmers to plant rice, and 

 give up the cultivation of peppermint. On the other hand, in Hokkaido 

 a somewhat larger area is said to be planted with peppermint. 



From the Report of the German Consul at Kobe 2 ) we abstract 

 the following information regarding Japan's trade in menthol and 

 peppermint oil: — 



The export of these two articles, which up to the present had 

 taken place almost exclusively via Yokohama, is now also finding its 



*) According to another estimate, only 241000 kin. 

 2 ) Berichte uber Handel und Industrie 10 (1907), 608. 



