58 Report of Schimmel § Co. April 1913. 



which the prospect of lower prices was steadily being held out, and had consequently 

 refrained from buying. These consumers were now compelled to see to the covering 

 of their own most urgent requirements. No old oil was left, and therefore a wild 

 competition set in for the new oil. Speculators and exporters fought for supplies, 

 and by Christmas they had driven the price of new oil up to 21 o4l> the manufacturers 

 meantime advisedly keeping back their output, with the object of securing a steady 

 increment in the value of oil. As a result of all these cross-currents of interests, of 

 the appearance on the scene of new speculators who were trying to reap some 

 advantage for themselves out of the market position, and finally, of the continual 

 influx of important orders from the consuming countries, lemon oil wildly advanced 

 in price from Christmas until the end of January, when it reached 30 «^, which 

 represents a price even higher than that which was paid for lemon oil somewhere 

 about the year 1859, when the lemon-gardens of Sicily were almost entirely destroyed 

 by a previously unknown disease of the trees. 



Since January the prices have receded somewhat. There have been several 

 up-and-down movements and the quotation has now, so to speak, settled down at 

 28 oM. But this does not exclude the possibility that within the next 9 months the 

 figure of 30 c4t may again be paid or perhaps surpassed. 



Apart from all the misfortunes already recorded, the frosts which in the month 

 of January devastated the lemon- and orange-gardens of California, as well as (it is 

 said) of Spain, have also been fateful for the lemon oil production of Sicily. 



Sicilian boxed lemons have not only been in steady and good demand for the 

 North of Europe; they have also realised excellent prices in North America, and 

 there is reason to expect that throughout the present year they will find a steady 

 market there. Hence, large quantities of lemons which would otherwise have been 

 used in the manufacture of oil are not now available for this purpose, being sent out 

 as second-class fruit to the principal consuming ports of Europe and America. 



The estimate is not exaggerated, and very possibly it may be below the mark, 

 that as compared with the two previous seasons the output of lemon oil this year 

 will show a decline in quantity of from 30 to 35 p. c. The possibility that this estimate 

 may prove to be below the reality is founded upon the circumstance that, according 

 to all appearances, the small quantity of fruit which still remains on the trees has 

 suffered a not inconsiderable damage from frost during the cold spell which set in 

 after the middle of March, and that therefore the manufacturing operations will come 

 to a premature close. 



If we take into consideration the fact that during the last three years, when the 

 crops were in excess of this season's, the consumers abroad have taken up not only 

 the current output but also the old stocks, estimated at 100000 kilos, there is ground 

 for assuming that notwithstanding the reduced consumption due to the high price 

 of the oil, the entire yield of the present season's crop will certainly be used up to 

 the last drop in the course of the present year, and that therefore a serious decline 

 in prices is scarcely within the bounds of possibility. But if next November or 

 December consumers should happen to find themselves once more wholly dependent 

 upon the product of the coming season's crop, then, no matter how good that crop 

 may turn out, very high prices must be reckoned on in the year 1914. 



In order to make it possible to form an opinion of the future course of the trade, 

 it is absolutely necessary to mention another point of importance. The enormous 

 advance in the price of lemon oil during the last 4 months has caused great difficulties 

 and losses to most of the local export houses. Within the last 15 years it had more 



