$ - 39 - 



leaps and bounds to such an extent that at the end of August they had 

 reached a figure of about 1/9 d. per lb. At the same time the supplies 

 came to a complete standstill and the sellers withdrew from the market. 

 The principal cause of this situation was no doubt to be found in the 

 fact that Ceylon suffered this year from an abnormally severe and long- 

 continued monsoon which made distilling impossible and suspended the 

 supplies from the Interior. This was naturally calculated to cause great 

 embarrassment to the shippers if they were to fulfil their delivery-contracts, 

 and thus laid the foundation for an upward movement. If to this fact is 

 added the not inconsiderable decline in the total exports of the last few 

 years, the tightening of prices cannot be said to have been totally un- 

 expected, although these conditions scarcely justify the actual extent of 

 the advance. 



The exports of citronella oil from Ceylon show the following figures : — 



712474 lbs. from January 1st, 1912, to August 12 th , 1912, 

 855589 „ in the corresponding period of 1911, 

 1068932 „ „ „ „ „ „ 1910, 



1106 731 „ „ „ „ „ „ 1909. 



The decline is here plainly seen. The first offers for shipment in the 

 months of October to December came to hand in the last days of August 

 and the quotations then receded to about 1/4 d., but of course only for 

 oil for shipment, for the scarcity of spot stocks in Europe was not affected. 

 It is therefore probable that until the end of the year it will be necessary 

 to pay prices equal to about the present basis. 



It is to be hoped that when supplies arrive more freely towards the 

 end of the year the prices will settle down somewhat, although the fact 

 must not be lost sight of that in view of the small supplies in Europe 

 and America the first arrivals will be promptly taken out of the market, 

 and that as a result of this the producers' and exporters' ideas of prices 

 may not be so quickly reduced to a lower level as would otherwise be 

 the case. 



The diagram between pp. 40 and 41 shows the quantities of Ceylon 

 citronella oil exported between the years 1892 and 1911/12, as well as the 

 prices "cif. London". 

 W Java citronella oil has also been very scarce of late, and all arrivals 



found immediate buyers at rising prices. It is obvious that the boom in 

 Ceylon oil is partly responsible for the increased cost of the Java product. 

 The latest reports are to the effect that the Java producers are thinking 

 of much higher prices still for next year's deliveries, but they will only 

 be able to carry out their intention if Ceylon does not return to the low 

 rates which prevailed at the beginning of the year. 



