I - 57 - 



worse it began to advance, slowly at first, and then more and more rapidly, 

 until at the end of June it had reached a level of 13.50 c4i y at the end of 

 July of 14.25 <M and at the beginning of September of 15.75 o4i to 16. — o4t. 



If we now ask ourselves to what extent such a pessimistic view of 

 the position and such a relatively high price for new crop oil for delivery 

 are justified, it is evident that no definite off-hand answer can be given. 

 Only about one-third of the annual crop of lemons in Sicily is used for 

 the manufacture of lemon oil; the remaining two-thirds are exported green, 

 either boxed or in car-loads. 



The larger the quantity of green lemons which is taken up by foreign 

 and native consumers, the smaller is that which is turned into lemon oil. 

 On the other hand, the smaller the proportion of green fruit sent abroad, 

 the larger grows the quantity of fruit devoted to the manufacture of oil 

 of lemon. The incalculable factor which arises from this divided use to 

 which the lemons are put will always make it impossible to forecast with 

 any certainty, before the commencement of the new harvest, how the 

 course of prices of lemon oil will shape itself. But no commodity can 

 escape the consequences of its statistical position, and within recent years 

 the statistical position of oil of lemon has steadily grown worse and worse, 

 and this year it is again less favourable than in 1911. 



Taking the most optimistic view, and assuming that in the coming 

 winter of 1912/13 we have to deal with a crop which does not exceed that 

 of the seasons 1910/11 and 1911/12, the fact remains that we entered upon 

 the manufacturing period of 1910/11 with a stock of about 100000 kilos 

 of old oil; that in December 1911 about 30000 kilos of old stock were 

 carried forward into the new season 1911/12, and that beyond any doubt 

 the stocks which are still in existence to-day, and which can at most amount 

 to 25000 kilos, will have been entirely taken up by the consumers by 

 December 1912. Hence it follows that we will enter upon the new crop 

 without any supplies of old oil whatsoever, either at home or abroad, 

 which can serve to tide over the requirements of the consumers for some 

 little time at the commencement of the new year. Therefore any large 

 accumulation of unsold supplies of lemon oil upon the Messina market 

 during the first four or five months of the coming year appears to be out 

 of the question. 



From what has been said above the conclusion may readily be drawn 

 that a decline of prices of the new lemon oil appears to be highly 

 improbable, and in the most favourable case could not occur until an 

 abundant lemon crop in 1913/14 had become an assured event. Until such 

 a contingency occurs, this market, partly owing to the requirements of 

 foreign countries, and partly through the manoeuvres of the local 

 speculators who will exploit this favourable opportunity, will in all pro- 

 bability be subject to a series of fluctuations with an upward tendency, 

 but hardly to any important downward movements. 



