prices.1* Such requirements will almost certainly 
be higher than past consumption. Our population 
was much smaller in the years when the supply 
was still ample. Then for a decade consumption 
was held down by business depression. With war- 
time prosperity, output was hampered by shortage 
of men and equipment. And now one factor handi- 
capping use is timber shortage. Prices of lumber 
have risen much faster than those of other con- 
struction materials,18 and in 1947 were more than 
three times as high as in 1936. 
To aim at less than potential requirements as 
defined here would be to sell America short. 
In the aggregate, the estimate of potential re- 
quirements corresponds to an annual drain of 61 
billion board feet from saw-timber trees: 
Potential requirements 
(1950-55) in terms of 
annual drain 
Timber. product: 
Dumber) scien de eens at ee ore 8.7 44.3 
PUL Pp WOOG Sse ei ae, eee. 1.7 5.8 
Fueliwoodycweares 1 coe Meena cee 1.8 3.1 
Veneer logs and bolts... 6 2.8 
ALISO Ch Cree ieaert eek tere one Bere 1.8 5.0 
Total 14.6 61.0 
Projecting these estimates several decades ahead 
results in some modifications of individual items 
but no significant change in total. 
Lumber will continue to account for the bulk 
of timber use. Housing needs, unmet for the past 
15 years, will constitute a heavy demand for lum- 
ber during the next 5 or 10 years at least. Today’s 
shortage, precipitated by the return of servicemen 
to civilian life, has been in the making since the 
depression cut down normal construction in the 
early 1930’s. In 1946 the National Housing Agency 
estimated that more than 3 million families lacked 
housing of their own and were “doubled up” with 
others. More than 7 million families, not includ- 
ing those on farms, were living in substandard 
“In order to focus this analysis, primary estimates of po- 
tential requirements are based on the period 1950-55 with an 
assumed gross national product (in 1944 dollars) of $200 bil- 
lion. Since the assumption of ample supply to keep prices 
of forest products (now badly out of balance) at reasonable 
levels could not be attained by 1955, the estimates have 
also been projected several decades ahead. Fuller discus- 
sion is given in Reappraisal Report 2, Potential Requirements 
for Timber Products in the United States. U.S. Dept. Agr., 
Forest Service. 1946. 
* The Bureau of Labor Statistics index of wholesale lumber 
prices for December 1947 was 303 compared with 191 for all 
building materials, including lumber. 
(billion cu. ft.) (billion bd. ft.) 
houses. A program to build 1214 million nonfarm 
residential units in the next 10 years was envi- 
sioned.!® This is a high goal. 
In addition to housing, the high level of indus- 
trial activity contemplated in potential require- 
ments implies a larger volume of general construc- 
tion than before the war. Construction of all sorts 
is an important feature of our industrial economy; 
it has sometimes been viewed as the balance wheel. 
An expanding volume of construction offsetting 
a trend toward use of proportionately less wood 
will tend to keep the demand for lumber high. 
Similarly, a 200-billion-dollar economy will call 
for more lumber for shipping purposes than was 
used before the war. It will also mean a larger 
demand for lumber used in manufacture. An era 
of home building means a heavy demand for fur- 
niture. And the demand for many other manu- 
factured articles tends to rise with consumers’ 
spending power. 
All together, under the assumed conditions of 
full employment and plentiful supply, potential 
lumber requirements a decade hence are placed 
at 44 billion board feet of timber as compared to 
34 billion of lumber drain in 1944 and about 40 
billion in 1947. 
Looking farther ahead, estimated lumber re- 
quirements are somewhat less. For one thing, the 
trend toward smaller houses and less lumber per 
house, if continued, might more than offset the 
demand of a larger population for more dwelling 
units. But there is no reason for placing long-range 
lumber requirements at less than 40 billion board 
feet. 
Pulpwood consumption has been expanding 
rapidly for 40 years. In recent years this has been 
due largely to increasing consumption of paper 
bags, cardboard boxes, and building boards. Con- 
sumption of paper and paperboard may reach 28 
million tons in the next decade. This is the basis 
for an estimated requirement of 20 million cords 
of domestic pulpwood as compared with a cut of 
15 million in 1944 and 17 million in 1946. 
Long-range requirements, estimated from pos- 
sible per-capita consumption with allowance for _ 
further improvement in manufacturing methods, 
are placed at 40 million cords of pulpwood to 
supply 21 million tons of paper and 23 million 
tons of paperboard. This estimate corresponds to 
more than double the 5 billion board feet of saw- 
19 NATIONAL HousiING AGENCY. HOUSING FACTS. Washing- 
‘ton. 1946. 
34 Miscellaneous Publication 668, U. S. Department of Agriculture 
