timber drain for pulpwood in 1944. Because rising 
standards of living in other parts of the world may 
add heavily. to demands on the countries from 
which we are now importing paper, pulp, and 
pulpwood, the long-range estimate visualizes the 
United States becoming self-sufficient in these 
products. 
Fuel-wood use is shrinking and may continue to 
do so. Most. of the fuel is used on farms where, 
with better income, there is a strong trend toward 
more efficient heating and cooking equipment, 
greater use of coal, oil, and electricity, and a de- 
crease in consumption of fuel wood. The decline 
may be partially offset by an increase in rural 
nonfarm population. Envisioning a reduction of 
20 percent in fuel-wood consumption, the potential 
requirement is estimated at about 50 million cords. 
About half of this is considered to be primary 
forest drain, and the remainder waste in logging 
operations, sawmills, and other wood-using plants. 
The use of veneer and plywood has expanded 
rapidly in recent years. Demand for container 
veneer will probably rise further. Likewise the 
need for veneer and plywood used in manufac- 
ture may also be greater, with a large increase in 
furniture output as a major stimulant. But the 
greatest increase is almost certain to be in ply- 
wood used for construction. This is likely to expand 
just about as fast and as far as the supply will 
permit without a great increase in price. It is con- 
ceivable that a quarter or a third of all lumber 
used in construction could be displaced by ply- 
wood. But the supply of logs suitable for construc- 
tion plywood is far too restricted to permit any 
such development. Potential requirements for con- 
struction plywood are placed at 1.3 billion and 
for all veneer and plywood at 2.4 billion board 
feet. To place this estimate any higher would call 
for a corresponding decrease in the estimate for 
lumber because the two commodities are so largely 
interchangeable. 
For other common uses, estimates of potential 
requirements must necessarily be more superficial. 
There is little prospect of an increase in the de- 
mand for wooden poles by the telephone and tele- 
graph companies. A large market for poles will, 
however, come with expansion: of rural electric 
light and power lines. Requirements are placed 
between 5 and 6 million poles, or at about the 
consumption reached in 1941. 
The demand for piling will vary with the volume 
of commerce moving through the Nation’s ports 
Forests and National Prosperity 
and also with the volume of construction. There 
is likely to be some further displacement of wood 
piling by concrete and steel, and more of the wood 
piling will be given longer life by preservative 
treatment. Nevertheless, the estimate of potential 
requirements is substantially higher than present 
consumption. 
Estimates of potential requirements for fence 
posts, mine timbers, and hardwood distillation 
are in line with present consumption. Some in- 
crease may be expected in demand for logs and 
bolts for specialized industries. On the other hand, 
potential requirements for hewn railroad ties and 
cooperage stock are estimated at less than present 
consumption. 
Losses 
Growth goals should, of course, include allow- 
ance for unpreventable losses from fire, insect and 
disease epidemics, and other natural causes. For 
the years 1954-43, annual losses due to fire and 
other destructive agents were 1.5 billion cubic feet 
of all timber, including 4.2 billion board feet of 
saw timber. Widespread application of good for- 
estry should cut the rate of unsalvaged losses per 
million feet of growing stock in half. But because 
attainment of a larger growth goal involves a sub- 
stantial increase in the volume subject to loss in the 
East, it does not seem advisable to bank on losses 
being less than 1.3 billion cubic feet, including 
3.2 billion board feet of saw timber. 
Ineffective Growth 
The goals allow for growth that will not be 
available for use. One example is growth on land 
that may be set aside as roadside strips, parks, and 
other scenic areas, and so withdrawn from com- 
mercial use. Another example is growth coming 
up on formerly cultivated lands that may be cleared 
again before the timber is mature. A further 
allowance is made for growth occurring on timber 
too scattered for economic operation, in isolated 
or inferior stands that may remain permanently 
inaccessible, or in residual trees of inferior species 
or poor quality that are lost if they are not mar- 
keted along with the better trees with which they 
are mixed. 
New Uses 
Technological advances promise new uses for 
wood in addition to those envisaged in the fore- 
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