THE CORRELATIONS OF AREAS OF MATURED CROP AND THE RAINFALL. 365 



Rabi harvest, cannot be rejected as incorrect without further examination. The 

 figures for the Ray a Tahsil for the matured crop could not be procured, for the years 

 1887-8, 1888-9 and 1889-90, and the loss of the 3 years out of 20 would so greatly 

 increase the already large probable errors that it was not thought worth while to 

 calculate the various coefficients. 



The results for the four Tahsils are as follows: — 



[a) Kharif harvest. 



Tahsil. R* 



Vr 



C K 



vc 



Daska 



I9'33 + I'3i 



8-670+ -92 



44-84 



19435 + 1271 



8426+ 899 



43-35 



1 



"4352- + -1222 -0213 



Pasrur 



21*13 + ro6 



7*043 ± 75 



33'32 



29225 + 1353 



8972+ 957 



30-70 



•II2I + -I489' -0049 



Sialkot 



24-01 + 1-36 



8-979+ -96 



37-4r 



50420 + 1661 



11016 + 1175 



21-85 



•4693 + -n8o 



•0114 



Zafarwal . . 



25-80 + 1-45 



9-698+1-03 



37-58 



47215 + 1549 



10272 t.1095 



21-76 



•5174- ±1105 



•0117 



R 



VR 



c, 



vc 



r P 



5'55 + - 47 



3-i3±'33 



56-28 



17575 ±1956 



12969 + 1383 



73-80 



■4458 + -1221 



•105 



6-90 + -66 



4-30 + -46 



63-12 



41090 + 2717 



18015 + 1921 



43-84 



-5179 + 'i 102 



•0521 



7 - 3 o + -63 



4'i8 ±-45 



57-29 



52215 + 2906 



19265 + 2055 



36-90 



•6309 + -0927 



•0556 



773 ±'69 



4'57 ±-49 



59-i8 



553SO + 3783 



25083 + 2675 



45-33 



•6532 + -0865 



•0647 



(b) Rabi harvest. 

 Tahsil. . . Rp 



Daska 

 Pasrur 

 Sialkot 

 Zafarwal 



The notation and units are the same as before, the rainfall being measured in 

 inches and the crop in acres. 



As in the case of the 30 villages selected for each Tahsil, Pasrur again shows a 

 very low correlation, so much so that in the case of the Kharif harvest this coefficient 

 is even lower than its probable error. It seems fairly certain that in the case of this 

 Tahsil some special circumstance must determine the exceptional values, and the 

 Kharif coefficient of correlation would certainly seem to be a result of inaccurate 

 statistics. 



On the whole the selection of villages with a larger area devoted to ' unirrigated ' 

 cultivation appears to have raised the correlations slightly, and the difference between 

 the Rabi coefficients for Sialkot and Zafarwal is fairly large, though, of course, no 

 stress can at present be laid on these differences. By selecting the villages the 

 average coefficient of correlation for the Kharif harvest for the 4 Tahsils taken in each 

 case has been raised from -36 to -41 and for the Rabi harvest from -56 to -62 ; thus the 

 accuracy of prediction for the harvest of a whole Tahsil by a single formula is, on the 



